Zhengzhou City Water Demand-driven Factors And Water Demand Forecast

Water demand is the main proof for water resources planning and rational water allocation mechanics. It also influences the scale of water engineering to some extent. So, it is of great significance to confirm the reasonable quantity of water demand for realizing the sustainable use of water resources and development of economy and society. This paper focuses on a systemic research on the issue of forecasting water demand in Zhengzhou, Henan province. It includes the following parts:(1) Give a literature of research on water demand all over the world; describe the characteristics and the problems of current forecasting methods, introduce the methodology of this paper.(2) Analyze the developing and using status in Zhengzhou, and point out the problems.(3) Analyze the affecting factors of water demand in terms of industry, agriculture and domestic, according to the nature and characteristic of water supplying and using system in Zhengzhou. On this basis, the paper distinguishes the main driving factors quantitatively in industry, agriculture and domestic by using the three-step distinguish method of combining gray and correlation analysis, sets up the main driving factors initially of water demand in terms of industry, agriculture and domestic.(4) Build a forecasting model of water demand in terms of industry, agriculture and living based on stepwise regression approach, and then obtain the crucial driving factors respectively; choose a optimal forecasting model to forecast water demand by using multi-form curves, and get the forecasting value in different years planned; an analysis is given to the change trend of water using structure.(5) The balance of supply and demand of water resources in 2010 and 2020 is analyzed; according to the benefits of new water supply project and South - to-North Water Transfer Project, water condition is divided into four different options, to identify the corresponding the degree of water use and absence; Suggestions are pointed out for water resource planning and management in Zhengzhou according to the research results.(6) Forward the problems and the work to be continued of this research.