Research On Risk Evaluation System For Vessels In Yellow Sea And Bohai Sea During Severe Weather

Disaster weather occurs frequently in recent years, it hinders the economic and social development. Shipping industry with high meteorological sensitivity is affected, several grave accidents occurred, causing grave loss to the economy and society.Due to the special geographical and climatic conditions in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, Severe weather caused the grave accidents, which have major destruction and death of people, it is one of the area of maritime accident-prone in China.This paper made a statistical analysis on the grave accidents in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea under rough seas of recent years, exchanged with a number of experts, and found out the types of key vessels under rough seas. The possible reasons of frequent accidents have been also analyzed.Then the vessel’s navigation safety investigation is completed in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, it includes the weather system caused by large waves, and the effect of large waves on navigation safety. The risk degrees for key vessels has been established, standards of different risk degrees, and the risk membership have been got by means of experts questionnaire survey.Based on the existing risk estimation model under heavy seas, a risk evaluation model of key vessels in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea under rough seas has been presented. Relying on marine meteorological fine platform in Tianjin Meteorological Bureau, a risk evaluation system under rough seas has been developed. In which, the system availability of wind and wave numerical prediction results is tested, and the functions of the system workflow module is described. Examples summarize the functions of the system and prove the effective guidance in the practical application.The system can give the prospective risk level in the navigation area of key vessels dynamically, intuitively and effectively. This system can be used for the marine and maritime safety management departments as an effective product of assistant decision making on ship meteorological security. It plays an important role in reducing grave accidents in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea under rough seas, guaranteeing the safety of life and property of the public, and enhancing the benefit of shipping companies.