A Prediction Model Of The Taxi Fleet With Mobile Taxi-hailing Apps

With the rapid development of Internet, the "Internet +" has become an increasingly important strategy in China. Our lives have been dramatically changed by smart phones and the ability to connect to the Internet anywhere and anytime. The taxi industry which plays an important role in the public transportation also faces significant reforms with the emergency of the mobile taxi-hailing apps.Firstly, a large number of domestic and foreign studies regard to taxis and taxi-hailing apps are analyzed, the main purpose of this paper is to make up for the lack of the research about controlling taxi fleet with mobile taxi-hailing apps. Then the differences between the conventional taxi market and the mobile taxi-hailing apps are analyzed in detail.Secondly, in order to analyze the passengers’ behaviors and motives, an extensive questionnaire was spread and collected by the Internet. Several models which are based on Logit models are established to explore the relationships between the utilization of mobile taxi-hailing apps and taxi unloaded ratio and the passengers’ waiting time.Thirdly, a model is established to evaluate the supply and demand state of taxicabs in a city. This model takes three factors including taxi million ownership, mileage utilization and occupancy rates into consideration, then adopt the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate a specific score of the supply and demand of urban taxi condition. The results can be used to develop proper strategies of taxi fleet control and mobile taxi-hailing apps management in the future.Finally, a demand-supply equilibrium model of the taxi fleet with mobile taxi-hailing apps is built based on all the analysis above. This model takes the passenger demand is equal to the taxi supply as a principle to predict the proper taxi fleet. Then supply and demand ratio and the market share by private cars which are obtained from mobile taxi-hailing apps is used to correct taxi largest demand, and passenger satisfaction is used to restrict the largest taxi supply in the model. Also the city Shenzhen is taken as an example to illustrate the equilibrium model.This thesis focuses on the most popular topic about the reform of taxi market with mobile taxi-hailing apps. The models that established can provide theoretical support and planning advice for the government on taxi improvement. However, due to the taxi market is dynamic, the taxi fleet forecasting model established have disadvantages in terms of longterm planning.