| With the acceleration of urbanization in China,a large number of people gather in cities,and the travel demand of urban residents is increasing,which puts forward higher requirements on the service level of urban public transport.Taxi,as an integral part of the urban public transportation system,closely related to daily travel of residents.It is also the business card of the city civilized image.As a way of providing personalized transportation services to the public,With the development of online-hailing taxi,the industry should be further transformed.Online-hailing taxi drivers have the characteristics of flexible market access mechanisms and lower illegal operating costs,which have led to rapid growth of supply in online-hailing taxi.At the same time,online-hailing taxi has brought a series of serious problems to urban passenger transportation services and operations that need to be resolved.The first is that the capacity of online-hailing taxi has become saturated;the second is that the excess supply has caused the income of practitioners that fail to meet expectations;the third is that it affects the operating efficiency of the urban green transportation system.Therefore,by summarizing the specific meaning of taxis,the operating subject,the theory of balance between supply and demand,and related capacity forecasting methods,this paper studies the reasonable capacity of urban taxi,analyzes the influencing factors of the taxi capacity and the balance between supply and demand and constructs a dynamic estimation model of the capacity.Firstly,from the perspective of market supply and demand,as well as operational characteristics,Taxi capacity monitoring system is constructed which monitor overall service level in the industry.The supply and demand condition monitoring system takes the effective mileage utilization rate(K)and the rental rate(H)as the main indicators for the comprehensive evaluation of the supply and demand of taxis market,and takes the waiting time of taxi passengers and the road traffic congestion situation as the evaluation reference,overall control the rationality of the industry’s supply and demand;the operational condition monitoring system extend secondary indicators that include factors such as passenger load characteristics,operating characteristics,operating income,and cost expenditures from the two prime indicators of the taxi operation characteristics and operational revenue,and is classified into a number of tertiary specific indicators.Compare the operating conditions of online-hailing taxi and cruising taxi,specific analysis the competitive situation between online-hailing taxi and cruising taxi in the industry.Through the monitoring system,to verify the necessity of taxi capacity measurement,the theoretical basis is provided for subsequent research processes.Secondly,under the premise of prioritizing the supply of the cruising car market,based on the supply-demand balance model,a balanced total mileage measure method considering the operating balance perspective and a balanced total income measure method considering the operating balance are proposed,and a combination dynamic measurement model is constructed.Combining the measurement results of the two methods,a reasonable capacity of online-hailing taxi is obtained.Finally take Tianjin as an example to make an empirical analysis.The research results show that the taxi industry is oversupply,and the oversupply of online-hailing taxi is the main influencing factor.It is estimated that the reasonable capacity of online-hailing taxi in Tianjin is33517～33560,and the actual ownership is higher than the reasonable capacity.The example verifies the practicability and reliability of the model.The research results can provide decision-making reference for urban management departments to formulate taxi supply regulation strategies.There are 30 figures,17 tables,73 references in this paper. |
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