Modelling On Risk Evaluation And Measure Optimization For Ji-Cao Freeway Project

Compared with the general construction project, there has the long construction period, complex construction process and involved more risks for freeway construction project. The risks affected by external factors are relatively large. The risks are widespread in various engineering projects, so it is inevitable that the risk management is an important key of freeway project management. But a lot of project owner’s risk management awareness and the management experience are weak, the existing evaluation system and model cannot meet the needs of the risk management. Comprehensive and accurate recognition for the freeway project risk and effective response, as far as possible to reduce the risk loss in the project course are demanding prompt solution in the freeway project management.The freeway project management experience and risk management theory are combined in this paper, and the theory of the project risk analysis, identification, assessment, response and monitor have been systematically collated and summarized. The overall dynamic risk management framework for whole life cycle process is established, and Ji Cao freeway project is analyzed as a case. The possible risk factors are identified in different stages of Ji-Cao project.The weight process was improved on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The level of analysis determines weight and the entropy method determines experts’ weights, and then according to the principle of minimum information entropy, the comprehensive weight is determined. According to the results of the index weight, the primary and secondary risk indicators of Ji-Cao project are in the order to determine the main risk and the main risk factors. This improved determine index weight method is well combined with the experts’ rich experience in the freeway risk management, but also increased the proportion of objective weight to limit the subjective factors in a reasonable range. The evaluation results are more credible.To minimize the risk of management costs to get as much as possible the risk of management benefits, the risk measures are optimized in this paper. Based on risk assessment results’ deep reasons, the corresponding risk coping strategies are proposed. And according to the grey theory, and the multi dimension characteristics importance of risk measures, the measures optimization is built for Ji Cao and other project risk strategies. The results show that the model has some limitations, but it is not limited by the data of mathematical statistics method. It is easy to be applied, and the evaluation results are in line with the actual project.In this paper, the Ji Cao freeway risk management system, the improved risk assessment model and the optimization model of risk measures were provided. There will be some reference for the risk management of the project.