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Monte Carlo Methods For Reliability Evaluation Of Electric Power System

Posted on:2017-01-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J PanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2272330485451685Subject:Probability theory and mathematical statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The reliability evaluation of complex systems is a focused and difficult problem due to their large number of components and complex structures. The general methods are precision method, bound method and simulation analysis method. Linear sensor system is widely used in engineering applications. In this paper, we apply the Linear sensor systems in the reliability evaluation of electric power system of USTC Management Building. Evaluation of the reliability of a linear sensor system is a #P problem whose computational time increases exponentially with the increment of the number of sensors. To overcome this problem, Monte Carlo methods are developed in this paper to approximate the sensor system’s reliability. The crude Monte Carlo method is not efficient when the sensor system is highly reliable. A Monte Carlo method that has been improved for network reliability, known as the Recursive Variance Reduction (RVR) method, is further adapted for this problem.
Keywords/Search Tags:electric power system reliability, linear sensor system, minimal cut set, RVR method
PDF Full Text Request
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