Research On Risk Evaluation Methods Of Railway Construction Engineering And Software Development

There are many kinds of potential risks in the process of railway construction, and the consequences are often more serious if the risk event occurs. In order to strengthen risk management of railway construction project, China railway corporation issued Railway Construction Project Risk Management Technical Code in 2014 and regulated that railway construction project should carry out risk management. In this context, the thesis constructs risk assessment model of railway construction project, and carries out risk factors ranking and risk evaluation, and develops risk assessment software. The main work is as follows:Firstly, the paper constructs more systematic risk index system of railway construction project. In order to highlight the importance of social risk in railway construction project, it is subdivided into type of environmental factor, type of economical factor, type of social factor, type of cultural factor, and its definition is described in detail in the process of risk identification.Secondly, based on Lan Jibin’s FAHP, the reasonable value range of parameters β is discussed. Nine representative values of parameters β are selected and a typical set of judgment matrix is calculated and the variation of each risk factor weights are researched.Thirdly, the paper carries out comparative analysis of two typical risk assessment model. Risk evaluation index system is established on the basis of risk identification. The weight of risk factors are respectively calculated by analytic hierarchy process(AHP) combined with expert scoring method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) combined with expert scoring method, and then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the risk level of risk events. Lastly, the application example verifies the validity of the two models.Fourthly, in accordance with the requirements of the new specification, Railway Construction Project Risk Factors Weight Calculation and Decision-making Software is developed by using C# language. Hierarchical structure of the software is more comprehensive than early versions of risk analysis software and the analysis model of the software is more reasonable. Lastly, the application example verifies the validity and the practicability of the software.