Research On Post-evaluation Of L Windfarm Project Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Compare with other energy sources,wind energy has advantages of wide distribution,abundant reserves,renewability,easy maintenance.Wind power is a direct and efficient utilization of wind energy,and has high scale application potential.Carbon emission control has become a long-term challenge facing the world.In this year’s national "two sessions",China also clearly put forward the goal of "striving to reach the peak of carbon emission by 2030 and achieve carbon neutral by 2060".In the context,as an important renewable energy,wind power has been widely concerned.With China’s energy structure transformation and the deepening of power system reformation,the proportion of wind energy is increasing year by year.At the same time,the equipment manufacturing and project operation technology of wind power have also been rapidly improved,which has played a positive role in China’s environment protection,energy structure optimization and sustainable development.Compared with the rapid development of wind power industry,the improvement of post-evaluation of wind power project is relatively backward.Wind power projects are characterized by small investment scale,flexible capacity,and high subsidy dependence.At present,China has incorporated post-evaluation into one of the necessary procedures of wind power project developing,but there is no standard post-evaluation index system and method.In order to make the post-evaluation play a positive role in the development of wind power industry and the project decision-making,the existing wind power post-evaluation index system and methods need to be further improved.The research on post-evaluation of wind power in this paper is in good agreement with the macro background and the objective needs of the industry.This paper attempts to decompose the post-evaluation objectives of wind power project,and makes a single post evaluation of the case project based on the important influencing factors.Finally,the using of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive analysis method(FCA)establish the model for comprehensive evaluation of the project.This paper first introduces the background and theoretical basis of wind power post-evaluation in Chapter 1-3.Secondly,the implementation process is divided into three parts according to the project development time cycle: the early stage,the construction stage and the operation stage in Chapter 4.Thirdly,the economic benefits of the project are analyzed from the aspects of cost and financial evaluation in Chapter 5.The environmental impact and social benefits are analyzed in Chapter 6.The sustainability of the project is analyzed from the external and internal aspects in Chapter 7.In Chapter 8,AHP is used to decompose the post evaluation objectives,and industry experts are invited to optimize the index weight to establish the post evaluation index system.On the basis of the previous analysis,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to score the project according to the principle of maximum membership degree;hence the evaluation conclusion is determined.Chapter 9 forms the post-evaluation conclusion based on the former evaluation results,expounds the problems existing and give suggestions,which are fed back to the decision-making members of the investor,completes the post evaluation procedure.The innovation of this paper is that to use combination of AHP and FCA to optimize the post-evaluation index system,and the introduction of wind energy industry benchmarking factors.These improvements have significance for certain extent on wind power post evaluation research.