Evaluation Of Energy-saving Emission Reduction Potential And Health Impact In Henan’s Transportation Industry

With the rapid development of economy and the continuous increase of the quantity of motor vehicles, the energy demand of transportation industry in Henan province has increased rapidly. The environmental problems caused by transportation and the health effects are more and more serious. As one of the fastest developing industries in Henan Province, transportation industry’s energy consumption accounts for 12.2% of total energy consumption in Henan Province during 2013, and the transportation industry had becoming an important sector of energy consumption in Henan province. At the same time, the health effects of the increasing amount of pollutant emissions from the transportation industry in Henan province are more and more obvious. Therefore, it is significant to study the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation industry of Henan province and to evaluate its impact on human health.A transport model of Henan was developed based on LEAP, and then the energy consumption, CO₂ emission and four atmospheric pollutants from 2014 to 2030 were predicted under four scenarios: baseline scenario, technological improvements scenario, mode optimization scenario and comprehensive scenario. At the same time, the factor analysis of inhalation of the traffic department SO₂, NO_x and PM₁₀ emissions based on the health effects caused by the economic loss.The results showed that:（1） The energy consumption in Henan’s transport sector is growing rapidly from 2014 to 2030, and it will increase to 44.30Mtce-75.08 Mtce in 2030, 1.6-2.7 times more than 2014;（2） In terms of pollutant emissions, the emissions of CO₂, NO_x, SO₂, CO, PM can be maximumly reduced by 62.56Mt、0.57Mt、26.89Kt、6.93Mt、15.92 Kt in 2030;（3） The mode optimization scenarios of energy emissions and pollutant emissions respectively compared with the technology improved scenarios will be more 10.92 Mt and 0.86 Mt during 2017, technical improvement under the situation of the energy emissions and pollutant emissions will be more than mode optimization scenarios in 511.64 Mt and 34.94 Mt among 2030, the measure of technological improvements is more effective in the short term, while in the long run the measure of mode optimization will bring more significant energy-saving effect;（4） Comprehensive scenario is an optimal scenario, in which the energy consumption is 44.30 Mtce, CO₂, NO_x, SO₂, CO and PM₁₀ emissions is 89.88 Mt, 0.94 Mt, 0.17 Mt, 3.06 Mt and 7.47 Kt in the year of 2030.（5） The economic losses caused by 2030 traffic emissions of SO₂ for 43.21-50.15 billion yuan, the NO_x emissions caused by the economic losses for 1734-2790 billion yuan, PM₁₀ emissions caused by the economic losses for 15.89-49.75 billion yuan, the death caused economic losses of up to and accounted for 82% of the total economic loss.