Study On Civil Buildings Energy Consumption Scenarios Prediction In Jilin Province Based On The Leap Model

Our country is in the period of rapid urbanization that urban constructionpromotes the rapid development of the construction industry, but95%of our country’snew buildings are energy-intensive architecture, building energy consumption willcontinue to increase, energy consumption ratio will rise. Currently, Jilin Province ’scivil energy consumption is21.71millions tons of coal equivalent which accountingfor26.17%of total energy consumption, being the main source of energyconsumption of the whole society, so reducing building energy consumption has animportant significance for energy-saving work of Jilin Province.Based on this, through analyzing the application status of domestic andinternational energy models, using the Long-term Energy Alternatives PlanningSystem LEAP model, the civil buildings in Jilin Province as the study objects, theauthor established the model of energy of civil buildings in Jilin Province. Theclassification of Statistics of Jilin Province and civil buildings energy characteristics,the study takes2005as base year and2020as goal, using scenario analysis method toset two scenarios (benchmark scene and policy scene).Model-driven factors, includingeconomic growth, population size, urbanization etc, this study makes these factorsquantify, and then use the model to predict two different scenarios of civil buildings inenergy demand in Jilin Province. Simulation results show that: in the two cases ofbase scene and policy scenarios, civil buildings energy demand in Jilin Provinceshows ascendant trend while in policy scenario, ascendant trend slows down; by2015,the final two scenarios energy demand differences can reach2050thousands tce,accounted for the total energy demand of the benchmark situation’s7.99%of that year;by2020, the final two scenarios energy demand differences will reach3510thousandstce, accounted for the total energy demand of the benchmark situation’s12.68%ofthat year. According to Jilin Province ’s civil energy consumption status and this studyconclusions, this paper provides the following recommendations of the future civilbuildings energy-saving in Jilin Province. View to the adoption of these studies, this paper would like to provide the theory basis for civil energy policy analysis andbuilding energy saving in Jilin Province.