The Research Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Traffic Volumes Prediction System And Application Based On Gray Theory

The rise and fall of transportation industry is the significant symbol to the development of market economy. Transportation has positive effect on economy developing, is the main artery of national economic developing. Regional integration growing into an important path for region coordinated development and economy globalization along with the economic globalization process accelerated.The aim of transport integration in BeiJing-TianJin_HeBei region is make the best use of traffic first, completely support for the major strategic of coordinating development in this region.On the basis of mastering existing information, it reduces errors of decision,prevents blindness of decision and promotes decision-maker’s management thru forecast at earlier stage. Through processing and analyzing about the forecast data, can grasp the variation trend of economy developing, realize the uncertain factors that effect future,and then reduce decision risk, promote the goal realized successfully. This article analyzed some core data of transportation such as volume of freight traffic and so on, to predict and analyze the development trend of transportation industry in BeiJing-Tian Jin-He Bei region, in order to provide scientific basis for the region’s transportation industry management.This article combines qualitative and quantitative methods,analyzing history and status of transportation industry development in BeiJing-TianJin-HeBei region, seeking the problems that restrict transport integration processing. Comparing regression forecast method with grey prediction method, selected the theory and method of grey prediction, established grey forecasting model on BeiJing-TianJin-HeBei region’s volume of freight traffic, predicted and analyzed about this item. The research result makes a certain scientific reference value to relate department for its management and decision.