| This paper started with the basic theory of the cogeneration technical renovation investment risk, and combined with the construction characteristics of the electric power projects to make a detailed research on the changing tendency and prevention strategies of investment risk in cogenerationtechnological transformation. The paper took the Taihe power plant as an example, started from the market environment of the Taihe thermal power plant, combined with cogeneration investment situation in China and the regional power supply and demand situation and characteristics of the power grid to evaluate and predict the investment risk of the cogenerationprojects. From the perspective of enterprise investment, the paper considered the natural, social, political, economic, technical, and other risks which may meet in the process of theproject construction. Then, the influence of various risk on economic benefit was analyzed, and the tolerance degree of this thermal power plant for these risks wasestimated to eliminate the possible risks and reduce the economic losses. This paper put forward different measures for different risks to achieve the purpose of risk management. In order to provide some valuable methods for China’s cogeneration investment riskanalysisin the process of electric power system reform.In this paper, the main research contents are as follows:Risk factors analysis. Based on the basic theory of risk analysis, and combining with the characteristics of cogeneration technology, this paper divided the risks of power plant into six secondary risks, including natural risk, social risk, political risk, economic risk, technical risk and other risk. Then the secondary risks were subdivided to 18 tertiary risk factors to provide a more perfect basis for further risk analysis.Establishing the investment risk analysis model for the cogeneration project construction. After determining the main risks of the project investment, this paper studied the qualitative and quantitative analysis of these risk factors. In this paper, the break-even analysis model, Monte Carlo model and AHP-FCE risk analysis model were presented, then the paper started from the market environment of the thermal power plant, and combining with the cogeneration investment situation in China and the regional power supply and demand situation and characteristics of the power grid to evaluate and predict the investment risk of the cogenerationprojects. In the break-evenanalysis, the calculation results showed that when the heating area was 6.07 million m2, the plant was neither profit nor loss, and sensitivity analysis results showed that the influence of electricity price is the most important factor for profit, and the heating price have less effect on the profit. By the Monte Carlo simulation analysis, after technological upgrading, the annual profit ability of the power plant is about 120.2425 millionRMB; Finally, based on the evaluation index above, this paperevaluated the risks faced by the power plant based on the AHP-FCE risk analysis model.In risk management, there are four measures:risk avoidance, risk mitigation, risk transfer and risk retention. Combined with the risk factors of the project, this paper put forward different measures to reduce the risk probability from the four kinds of countermeasures. Through the proposed risk management measures, the effective management of risk management was carried out according to different preventive measures. |
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