Research On Construction Cost And Schedule Of Urban Rail Transit Considering Risk Factors

Cost, schedule, quality, safety of four goals in the pursuit of construction project, is the fundamental purpose and the soul of the construction of a project. Urban rail transit engineering because of its own characteristics:large investment, long construction period, high quality requirements involving professional strong, the decision of the project construction are vulnerable to unpredictable factors. Project risk accident will cause serious construction cost and construction schedule delay. Therefore, considering the project, evaluation of project construction found the project cost, progress and other issues, and make the corresponding construction scheme, of rail transit construction and healthy development has a very heavy To be of meaning.The on the basis of research and analysis of the rail traffic engineering construction characteristics, selection and optimization of the structure entropy factor analysis of rail transit project construction risk factors. Using the questionnaire form, for 30 rail transit construction risk factors index, sent through the mail, spot inquiry, telephone inquiries to on track traffic engineering construction management personnel, investigation and consultation, issued a total of questionnaire 150,in.order to build a risk assessment matrix.Risk factors of preliminary optimization by the method of structure entropy, according to factor analysis of elimination method does not conform to the correlation risk factors, further optimize risk factors index system,the eventual establishment of a more complete and reasonable Index system of construction risk factors of rail transit project.Combined with basic characteristics of risk factors in railway traffic construction and its index system,·based on grey entropy theory of the risk factors of the project comprehensive evaluation, determine the level of risk coefficient. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) the rail transit engineering end part quality comprehensive evaluation, and according to the theory of fuzzy mathematics to "quality earned value" fuzzy processing, constructing fuzzy quality earned value model. Finally, according to the alpha-CUTS trapezoidal fuzzy interval theory, the risk coefficient and fuzzy quality earned value model combining, establish a "risk-quality earned value method" model. The model can fully from the project cost, schedule, quality, safety and four On the comprehensive consideration, to further improve the construction cost of rail transport projects, the progress of the progress of evaluation and prediction accuracy.