Research On Vehicle Arriving Headway Reliability Evaluation Of Bus Rapid Transit

Priority to the development of public transport is the best way to solve the problem of transportation supply and demand. BRT has been greatly developed as a new mode of transport in many cities.BRT has larger capacity, higher frequency and less delays compared with conventional public transit. BRT operational reliability is an issue of common concern operators for passengers and operators. However, domestic research on BRT operational reliability focuses on the design layout and transport capacity. The operational reliability influence factors and evaluation methods research are insufficient. Therefore, research on BRT operational reliability based on arriving headway and analysis of the factors are of great theoretical and practical significance.Space-time characteristics of line operation influence factors have been analyzed based on B1, Changzhou AVL data. The arriving headway variations in different stations and in different departure trips are studied. The influence factors of arriving headway and operating time are discussed.In order to evaluate the rapid transit system operational reliability, the arriving headway reliability evaluation models are established respectively on the sub-micro, meso and macro levels. The research on the micro level is focused on the relationship of the arriving headway and the station characteristic after excluding the impact of inter-station and sections. The station reliability evaluation model based on the arriving headway is established.Then, a meso-level bus operational reliability model is developed by taking the operation section as a unit. The first step is to eliminate the influence of accidental factors on the overall operation of the section by calculating the coefficient of variation of each index. Reasonable fitting method of the sectional travel time reliability and the arriving headway reliability is studied under different circumstances.On the macro-level the key site selection method, the reliability extreme value processing method and line operational reliability evaluation principles are researched based on the vehicle operating characteristics.The analysis based on B1, Changzhou AVL data shows that arriving headway reliability is significantly associated with number of lines in a station and the intersection distance. The arriving headway reliability and the running time does not exist significant relationship. The operational reliability improvement measures is proposed on link design and station delay.