Research On Reliability Analysis And Control Strategy Of Bus Headway

priority to the development of public transport is an inevitable requirement for alleviating traffic congestion,improving the quality of life of the people,and improving the basic public service level of the government.It is a strategic choice for building a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.In this paper,taking the nomal bus transit as the research object,based on the real-time data,selects the headway reliability as an evaluation index to measure the service level of the bus,and based on the detailed analysis of the cause of the abnormal fluctuation ofthe headway,proposes the stability based on the headway.Sexual bus stagnation control strategy is adopted to maintain the stability of the bus headway in the line,reduce the waiting time of passengers at the site,and improve the quality of bus services.Firstly,based on the bus operation data of Line 663 in Beijing,this paper analyzes the characteristics of time-space characteristics and time-distance distribution of bus lines,and focuses on the variation of the headway timing of the same bus unit at each station of the line and that different bus units are on the same site.The time-to-day variation of the reliability of the front-end.Secondly,in order to systematically evaluate the reliability of bus heads,a time-to-space reliability evaluation model was established on three levels:micro,meso,and macro.Based on the reliability evaluation model for headway distance established,the reliability analysis of the Line 663 in Beijing from the site,section,and line is performed.Among them,based on the micro level,we established a site-based headway compliance index and a headway stability index.The meso-level segment uses the inter-station segment as a unit to study the reliability of the headway and the reliability of the segment run time.Reasonable method of fitting.At the macro level,a key reliability assessment model was established by selecting key sites.Finally,based on the analysis of reliability evaluation results and analysis of bus improvement control strategies,this paper proposes a holding control strategy based on the stability of headway and establishes a corresponding real-time prediction model of bus headroom.Based on the Monte Carlo method and the use of Matlab programming language,the simulation of the bus operation process is performed to verify the effectiveness of the simulation model and the effectiveness of the hysteresis-based control strategy based on headway distance reliability for improving the reliability of the bus head.