Scheduling Design Passenger Assignment Prediction And Evaluation Of Limited-stop Service

With the development of urban public transport, and the aim to match to the passenger’s travel choice behavior, so there are various forms of bus scheduling in public transport system. Due to the difference in road, line, volume of passenger and other conditions, there are some disadvantages and advantages that are existed in different forms of bus scheduling. The express scheduling in the regular bus scheduling is selected as the main object of study in this paper, and combined with the real and based data of 10 bus lines in Harbin, this paper carries on the detailed analysis in four areas, which includes collecting data, designing the process, allocating the passenger flow and forecasting the benefits.Firstly, the collection and process of basic data of the regular bus was carried out in this paper. On the basis of description of the setting principles, merits, faults and operating mode of the express scheduling, and the influential factors in configuration of line, distribution of passenger flow and conditions of vehicle were analyzed through bus based data of IC card, GPS and artificial survey. Secondly, the study on the limited-stop operating scheme of one-way direction is carried out. Through the number of station, bus headway and distribution of passenger flow, lines of limited-stop service were selected; and the optimal segmentation method was used to decide on running time of limited-stop service; and the K-means clustering method was used to select the station; using to combined station selection; and the “passenger kilometer” method was used to determine the number of runs. And then, based on the PSL(path-size logit) model, the forecast in distribution of passenger flow on public transit line was studied. Passengers was divided into four classes by travel origination-destination, and travel choice of the passengers was summed up by measure of the time as three kinds of travel schemes, and the forecasting model about assignment of passenger flow based on PSL model line was built, and model fitting parameters of SP survey scheme was designed. Finally, from the three aspects, which is walking time, waiting time and traveling time, to analysis the changes in travel time of passenger, the forecasting method to evaluate the benefit of limited-stop service based on the travel time.In this paper, the operation scheme of regular limited-stop service and evaluation of allocating the passenger flow design are designed, and the practicability and validity of the methods referred in this paper are verified with the real data. The results of the thesis can be theoretical guidance for public transport management when they select lines for limited-stop service, design and evaluation of the effectiveness, and provide reference for intelligence and personalization in public transport.