Passenger Flow Assignment Of Urban All-stop Bus And Skip-stop Bus Based On Logit Model

With the development of public transport system, the methods of operation and scheduling for public transport system are more diverse. Under different operation strategies, the choices of passengers and passenger flow assignment are not only the key for the reasonable arrangement of public transport capacity, but also the key to improve the efficiency of operation scheduling. Therefore, the research on the passenger flow assignment after applying a kind of new operation strategy is in need. The research in this thesis provides the reference for division of the public transport to arrange the transport capacity reasonablely. Previous studies mainly focus on the optimization of overall utility of the transit network, rather than on the impacts of operation strategy changing and individual choice behavior on passenger flow assignment. Therefore, this theis fouses on the passenger flow assignment of all-stop bus and skip-stop bus. Based on the classification of passenger origin-destination distribution and the stated preference survey, a logit model is applied to the problem of passenger flow assignment of all-stop bus and skip-stop bus.Firstly, lituratures on the passenger flow assignment and logit model were reviewed. The defects of current research were analyzed at the same time. Then, stated preference survey and logit model were chosen to study passenger flow assignment of all-stop bus and skip-stop bus.Secondly, based on the differences between the bus stops after the operation of skip-stop bus, passenger origin-destination distribution was classified. Then, passenger choice behavior of each kind of origin-destination distribution was analyzed. The analysis provided the basis for designing the questionnaire of the SP survey.Thirdly, the attribute level of passenger and the trip options of the SP questionnaire were determined. Then, the survey was conducted on the internet and other sites. The data was collected and checked after the survey.Based on the data collected from the SP survey, a logit model was applied to assign passenger flow of all-stop bus and skip-stop bus for different situations. The model was calibrated and tested through SAS.Finally, the method and model proposed in the thesis were applied to assign the passenger flow of bus route#Te8Nei before the provision of skip-stop service for bus route#Te8Nei. The results were compared to the passenger flow of bus route#Te8Nei and bus route#Rapid Te8Nei after the operation of bus route#Rapid Te8Nei. By means of error analysis, the method and model proposed for passenger flow assignment of all-stop bus and skip-stop bus were tested.