Prediction Of Land Use Change Based On The Development Priority Zones Planning

As the grand strategy of China's economic development and ecological environment protection,the development priority zones planning strategy has an important impact on the governance of coastal space and the overall coordination of land resources.The simulation study of land use change based on the planning of development priority zones can understand the development trend of land use in coastal areas,provide multi-decision support for the formulation of land use policies with different preferences,and also play an important role in improving and protecting the ecological environment.This paper uses GIS and remote sensing technology,combined with CLUMondo model,to predict land use change in the main functional areas of Beibu Gulf coastal cities,Beihai,Qinzhou and Fangchenggang.Based on the land use data of three cities in 2010 and 2015,the land use change under the planning of the development priority zones in 2025 was simulated.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)To analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use in Beibu Gulf coastal area from 2010 to 2015.In this paper,the quantitative change of land use and the change of spatial pattern in the study area are deeply explored.The study found that there are regional differences in the rate of land use change in the Beibu Gulf,the land use structure tends to be complex,the interaction and role of various land types are also strengthened,and the degree of land use is gradually increasing.At the same time,the shape of regional cultivated land,forests,grasslands,waters,and unused plaques tends to be regular,and the degree of fragmentation of the landscape is increased.The connection between the plaques of the regional construction land and the penetration of the corridors are developing in a better direction,there are fewer dominant types in the overall landscape,and the distribution of landscape types is more uniform.(2)Constructing a scientific and perfect driving factor system and analyze and verify the prediction results.Based on the two dimensions of natural factors and socio-economic factors,this paper selects nine driving factors,simulates the land use simulation map in 2015,and uses map comparing tool to compare the land use simulation map with the actual distribution map.The kappa coefficient is as high as 0.88.The high precision proves that the model simulation results are ideal and can be used for the land use simulation study of the main functional area in 2025.(3)Land use change prediction study from 2015 to 2025.The land use simulation results reveal the future development trend of land use in the coastal area of Beibu Gulf and propose corresponding policy recommendations.The research shows that the construction land in key development zones has a very significant growth,and it appears to be moving from inland to coastal in space.People focus on the existing urban areas for economic construction and gradually expand outward;the land in the main producing areas of agricultural products The pace of development has gradually slowed down,and urban construction has paid more attention to the improvement and optimization of the original foundation.The intensity of construction land has been continuously improved,and the protection and intensive use of cultivated land has become more obvious.The water area of key ecological functional areas has increased significantly,and forestry and agriculture in coastal areas have been basically guaranteed.