Study On Dynamic Change And Prediction Of Landscape Pattern In Rongcheng Coastal Zone

Coastal zone,is a geographical spatial unit of succession,composite cross,interaction between Marine ecosystem and terrestrial ecosystem,having the largest population density,the highest level of development and utilization and the most vulnerable ecological environment in the world.China has 18000 kilometers of coastline and 14000 kilometers of island coastline,and the coastal zone resources are extremely rich.Be driven by industrialization and urbanization,the trends to gather together in the coastal zone has become the common pressure of the world coastal zone,and the coastal zone is facing threats from global warming,rising sea levels,damage of regional ecological environment,sharp decline in biodiversity,increased pollution and fishery degradation,which have seriously affected the sustainable development of coastal zones.Rongcheng has almost 500 kilometers of coastline,accounting for nearly 1/6 of the total length of coastline in Shandong province,and is one of the most important shorelines.This paper selects remote sensing image of 2003,2010 and 2017 as data information,with the support of RS and GIS technology,through pretreatment and artificial visual interpretation,getting the three phase landscape type map according to the landscape classification system,using landscape pattern index analysis method,analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamic change of landscape pattern of representative Rongcheng coastal zone during 14 years,and successfully simulated and predicted the landscape pattern in 2024 and in 2031 using CA_Markov model which has tested by Kappa coefficient.The results show that the landscape pattern of the coastal zone of Rongcheng city has changed significantly in the past ten years,showing obvious periodical characteristics.The study area was affected by human activities obviously,and the change of natural landscape to the artificial landscape was dramatically.The dominance of cultivated land which is the landscape matrix of the study area has weakened obviously,and the construction land has been greatly increased,and the trend of migration to the ocean side is significantly.The overall landscape in the region tends to be fragmented,and the complexity of the patches increases,and the distribution of each landscape type is gradually balanced.The prediction results of CA_Markov model show that the dynamic change of landscape types in the coastal zone between 2017 and 2031 is slowing.For the area change of various landscape types,grassland area continues to increase,and forest land area is slowly increase,while cultivated land continues to decrease and construction land slowly decreases,and tidal flats and unused land firstly decreased and then increased.The impact of human activities continues and the ecological environment has improved but remains fragile.In the end,according to ecological problems exposed by the analysis results,combining with the actual situation of Rongcheng coastal zone,this paper proposed some feasible suggestions and countermeasures from perspective of the natural landscape and cultural landscape protection planning level,in order to work on the healthy and sustainable development of Rongcheng coastal zone.