Construction Of Cross - Strait Logistics Prosperity Index

As the cross-strait exchanges become more frequent, the measure of cross-strait logistics development is of great importance for monitoring the degree of cross-strait cooperation and prosperity trends. The international study of the logistics index has also attracted attention. The logistics index can be regarded as the current supplement to the construction of logistics index and cross-strait logistics research. By constructing the cross-strait logistics index, this paper quantifies the cross-strait logistics development. This is the first comprehensive measure of cross-strait logistics development index, based on data availability and real-time, taking into account scientific and feasibility. This paper can be the reference and foundation work for the further study of the cross-strait logistics.This article summarizes four kinds of index and proposes a framework for building logistics index system. Firstly, this paper selects four types of statistical indicators to objectively reflect the extent of the logistics prosperity. Secondly, with collection and pretreatment of recent statistical with respect to selected indicators, this paper uses improved X-11seasonal adjustment method to filter the indicators data so that the adjustment can be more in line with china’s economic condition.Thirdly, calculate the weights of Logistics indicators in index system for the Index synthesis by AHP, including the cross-strait macroeconomic indicators. The validity has been verified comparing to main economic indicators.The article also measures association between various economic indicators and the cross-strait trade by the time delay analysis. This article builds the leading indicator, the consistent indicator and the lagging indicator, through which we can have an accurate feedback and anticipation of the cross-strait trade, capital and personnel flow.