| With the accelerated process of economic globalization and financialliberalization in china in recent years,the scale of international short-term capitalflows develops very rapidly, where there are many new situations, new trends, at thesame time new problems. The short-term capital flows have showed lots ofcharacteristics,such as the high mobility, the flows which is not easy to supervisionand control, the strong speculation.At the same time, problem exists in our financialmarket system and the regulatory system.The short-term capital flows will bring greatmenace to economic development and financial security in china.So the study onshort-term capital flows mechanism and its influencing factors has a large practicalsignificance.Based on the regression of the classical theory of international capital lfow，Thispaper introduces the present situation of short-term capital flows in2012and thecirculation channel, calculates the international short-term capital net inflow volumescale. Combined with the classical theory of capital lfow and the actual situation inour country,the main influence factors are determined.The VAR measurement modelof short-term capital flows,]interest rate spread, the real effective exchange rateindex，economic growth rate, inflation rate, real estate income rate are set up. Thepaper also analyses the data on the quarter of2006-2012using Granger causality test,impulse the response function of the factors impact on short-term capital flow andvariance decomposition method to evaluate the relative influence of each variableimpact. The new situation on the2012short-term capital flows are analyzed,Through the empirical conclusion of this article,the influence of interest rate and theexchange rate are more significantly, reflecting the capital profitability.Finally, from the view of the interest rate market, exchange market, short-termcapital supervision mechanism, balance of international payments, policies and adviceare pointedly proposed. |
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