| The number of people in our country who traveled abroad reached one hundred million in 2014, it’s 17.5 percent higher than last year.The cost of traveling abroad is155 billions dollar, it’s 20.8 percent higher than last year.,.The tourism service trade deficit will exceed one hundred billions dollar. During the past Spring Festival, the number of people in our country who traveled to Japan reached four hundred and fifty thousand,the daily consumption is expected over six billions yuan.From 1998 to2014,the number of outbound tourists increased 10.8 times,from 8.43 millions to one hundred million. With the advancement of people’s living standard, the new pursuit of consumption level is improved and the spiritual culture,China’s tourism industry has entered a stage of rapid development,it promote the production, consumption, and becoming an important part of the national economy.However, the tourism industry is a sensitive industry,inextricably linked to its economic development and environmental.The exchange rate of tourism is a new word appearing in the internet,especially during the Spring Festival in 2015, "following the exchange rate to travel " is becoming a new trend.During the Spring Festival in the past years,tourists usually chose the place having good weather,such as Southeast Asia.With the appreciation of the RMB against the yen and the euro, more tourists choose those places where the RMB would be worth more..During the Spring Festival, the number of people who went to Japan, Europe rose.In view of this, it is more obvious that the wish to travel is driven by the decline of exchange rate.The exchange rate is the ratio between the two currencies on the exchange, also can be regarded as the value of a country’s currency to another currency. In the development of the RMB exchange rate, with the exchange rateregime changing,the RMB exchange rate is also inconstantly changing. But from July 21, 2005,our country implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, conditioning reference to a basket of currencies,the RMB began to face the pressure of continuous appreciation. Combined with the changes happened in the tourism market, we can’t help thinking that the RMB exchange rate would affect the tourism market during the Spring Festival this year, as reflected, if anything, so what the level of impact will be?So in this paper, for the above questions, based on summing up the previous related studies, analysis of the conduction mechanism of RMB exchange rate on the entry and exit of tourist market in china. Selecting the co-integration model and using Evie WS6.0, it carries on the empirical analysis to explore the impact of exchange rate changes on entry and exit of China’s tourism market from many aspects. The result shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the total number of inbound tourism of our country is negatively related to the appreciation of the renminbi, i.e., decrease in the number of inbound tourism, and vice versa, and have different effect on different objective for inbound tourism of our country,different countries or regions of the RMB real effective exchange rate; on the number of outbound tourism in China is positively correlated, RMB exchange rate appreciation will promote the development of outbound travel. Finally from the government and industry associations, tourism enterprise’s angle, proposed our country exit tourism should to the RMB exchange rate change measures. |
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