The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rate Change On China's Inbound Tourism Market

The tertiary industry,represented by service industry,has made more and more contributions to economic development.As the main part of service trade,tourism service is an important source of foreign exchange revenue.Exchange rate is very important for a country's foreign economic activities and even the operation of the whole national economic system,and it is the international economic contact hub of a country.The change of exchange rate affects international trade by affecting the relative price of goods.This paper focuses on the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's inbound tourism market.Under the new situation of exchange rate fluctuation,by studying the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the scale and distribution structure of inbound tourism market,we can find out the general law and also investigate the reflection of different types of market on RMB exchange rate,and promote it to tourism enterprises as the case may be,so as to form reference significance.In conclusion,most qualitative analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate leads to the decrease of inbound tourism demand and the increase of outbound tourism demand.However,the quantitative analysis of Chinese data does not fully support this conclusion.Since the appreciation of RMB in 2005,China's inbound tourism in the normal year is still growing substantially,and the growth rate is not slower than before the exchange rate reform.Based on the theory and model of exchange rate influencing international tourism market,this paper studies the influence of RMB exchange rate on China's inbound tourism market from two aspects.The first level studies the transmission mechanism of the impact of exchange rate changes on the inbound tourism market.This level mainly reflects the positive or negative ways and channels of the impact of exchange rate rise and fall on the foreign exchange revenue and expenditure of tourism and the number of tourists.That is to say,through the mechanism of price transmission,when the domestic exchange rate rises,that is,the devaluation of the domestic currency,will increase the demand of domestic inbound tourism,and vice versa.On the second level,based on the study of transmission mechanism,this paper analyzes the current situation of RMB exchange rate and inbound tourism market,and studies the impact of exchange rate changes on inbound tourism market,combining with the empirical analysis of source countries and types of tourists.After the reform and opening up,the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has been promoted,the formation mechanism has been continuously improved,the fluctuation flexibility of RMB has been expanded,and the overall appreciation has been achieved.It can be seen from the research that the goal of RMB exchange rate reform is to finally realize the exchange rate formation mechanism mainly regulated by the market.In the long run,it is inevitable that RMB exchange rate will fluctuate greatly in a certain period,which will undoubtedly bring more risks and difficulties to the development of China's tourism industry.In 2018,the total number of inbound and outbound tourists reached 291 million,a year-on-year increase of7.8%;the number of inbound tourists reached 141.2 million,a year-on-year increase of 1.2%.It can be seen from the data that the exchange rate of RMB and China's inbound tourism market are both fluctuating and rising trends.In order to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the number of inbound tourists,this paper chooses the co integration test and establishes an error correction model for analysis.On this basis,the inbound tourism market is divided according to the source countries and different destinations,and the response of different inbound tourism markets to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is studied. the results show that there is a negative correlation between the change of RMB exchange rate and the inbound tourists from Taiwan and Japan,which indicates that the number of tourists from these two countries is vulnerable to the impact of the change of RMB exchange rate.Although there is a co integration relationship,the decision coefficient is not very large,which also shows that the change of inbound tourism market is not determined by a single factor,but the result of interaction and mutual restriction of various factors.These factors may change every moment,so their influence on inbound tourism is also changing,so the exchange rate is not for inbound tourism Tourism market has a significant impact on the factors,not to mention as a decisive indicator to predict the inbound tourism market.However,in the near future,the tourism industry should pay attention to the RMB exchange rate,which should be included in the decision-making basis.