Research On The Spatial Variation Of The Urban Residential Land Premium Rate

In recent years, as with the development of the China’s social and economy, the accelerating process of the urbanization, and the having been improved land market mechanism, additionally the effect of the own regional and scarcity characteristics of land, there is intense fluctuations of time and space in land market. Land premium rates show the imbalance spatial distribution, that some hot spots have higher land premium, while other regional markets relatively deserted. This phenomenon, one side maybe a reflection of the objective situation of the land market supply and demand, on the other hand it may be due to the failure of the land market. Thereby, it may impact the normal order of the land market and the enforcement of the national macro-control. Therefore, based on the differences in the spatial distribution of land premium, analysis of its mechanism action of the influencing factors, depth study of the spatial distribution of Land premium, research on the land market supply and demand situation, will importantly help to promote stability and prosperity in the real estate market.In this study, we employ the premium rate of the residential land from 2010 to 2014 in the urban of Chongqing as research subjects, reviewed the domestic and international study status of the land premium spatial variability, sort out and select the urban land location conditions, land use conditions and the characteristics of bidding enterprises as the influence factors, analyzed and processed the data by the methods of exploratory spatial analysis and Geostatistical analysis, based on the Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model, explored the establishment model of the spatial variability of Land premium rate, in order to study the spatial variability of the effects that different factors impact on the residential land premium rate, and then to discuss the application of the land premium spatial patterns in the management of the macro-control and the management of Land Price Evaluation. The conclusions were as follows:(1) Land premium could be look as the incremental of land prices, so the spatial variability may be more sensitive, also showed spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, we also proved that the Spatial non-stationarity of the residential land premium rate in Chongqing City, provided the preconditions for the construction of the GWR model.Using the trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of the Spatial Exploratory Analysis, we find that: whatever in the East-West or North-South direction, the residential land premium rate in Chongqing City both showed the trend that central region become lower, while suburbs on both sides become higher; Spatially, the premium rate showing a positive correlation rather than a random distribution, in the local region like northeast and central of the main city exhibit High-High agglomeration, part of the northwestern and southern regions of the main city exhibit Low-Low agglomeration. Employed the methods of semi-variance analysis and spatial interpolation analysis, the variation of the premium rate in the four directions is completely different, its spatial variation speed and range are not the same, the change of spatial distribution is not mean steady state.(2) the results show that the GWR model has more advanced than the global linear model,specific performance: the optimal fitting value of the GWR model was higher than that of ordinary linear regression model; the GWR model explained the role of the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable better, the regression coefficient of the Volume ratio of the land or the land area is not significant in the general linear model, while in the GWR model significantly; by utilizing Spatial interpolation method to get the estimated coefficients distribution, GWR model can be more sensitive to explain the mechanism between the factors and the premium rate.(3)There were mainly three major aspects Factors that affecting land premium rates, like socio-economic environment, the characteristics of land itself and the characteristics of the auction business. For the study area in Chongqing City, the study results show that:(1)after being corrected by the regression coefficients of each factor, the spatial distribution of the land premium rate of the standard parcel residential showed the descending phenomenon in the order of the expansion of the metro area, the traditional core area of the main city, southern of the main city;(2)the land premium rate of residential land was negatively correlated with the land area(range from-0.094 to-0.024) and volume ratio(range from-5.02 to 1.56), the effect of land area and land volume ratio on the premium rate all showed significant spatial differences;(3)the land level has a significant impact on the residential land premium rate, range from-5.04 to 3.52, and presents a certain spatial instability, in most cases the land quality become better, the land premium rate become higher;(4)the floor price had a negative correlation impact of the land premium rate, range from-10.19 to-4.94,which also show significant spatial differences, it reflected that the residential land market in Chongqing City overall performance rational and non-overheating;(5)the number of the bidding enterprises has great influence on the land premium rate, range from 14.74 to 20.29, and in the metro expansion area it becomes relatively more intense.Combined with the actual situation in Chongqing, in order to reveal the usefulness and social value of the results of this study, this research respectively explored the application of calculating of the maximum control standard of land premium and estimating the land value-added rate in the way of the cost approach, provide a reference for the government who may employ the policies to finish the stated control objectives of the real estate market or the land price evaluation and management.