| In the whole life cycle process of demonstration, design, development, production and use of equipment of weapon system, we often need to calculate the kill probability of its given objectives, in order to provide the necessary data of cost-effectiveness analysis and provide the basis for better decision of different designs and configurations. In response to this need, and in order to calculate the killing probability of weapon system more accurately, aiming at the damage characteristics of percussion fire and proximity shooting of anti-aircraft weapons. In this thesis we stablished a mathematical simulation model for the calculation of damage to the key component of target, combined with internal and external ballistic characteristics, we have mainly studied the following aspects:1. According to the error characteristics of percussion fire and proximity shooting, the mathematical simulation model for the error analysis is established, which can be used to decompose firing error based on the error source. According to the error and the error spread characteristics of random variables, we take advantage of statistical sampling method to randomly generated firing data error component, used as input parameters to calculate kill probability. With this method, we effectively optimized the algorithm structure and reduced the error of results, which as a result, has improved the accuracy of calculation of the kill probability.2. Based on the process of damaging target, we establish the mathematical model of calculating the kill probability of percussion fire to determine the target position and motion parameters. Using the target advance position, combined with the situation that projectile flying and target encounter, we can obtain the coordinates kill law, and then determine target hit and the hit area, and finally through the integral transformation and using Simpson’s method to calculate the kill probability of percussion fire weapon system. This method is easy to understand, simple to calculate and capable of analysis the relationships between variables, very convenient for application.3. We have studied the analysis of target damage process in this chapter, and established three space rectangular coordinate systems for the kill probability calculation model of proximity shooting weapon system. Based on fragments mass spreading and the scattering law, combined with the calculation analysis of fragments flying speed and flight time, we can obtain the coordinates kill law, and according to the use of projection to calculate the number and distribution of fragments hits on target, we can calculate the kill probability of proximity shooting. This method is relatively simple for calculation and can effectively improve the accuracy of the calculation results.4. Based on the previous research of this thesis, we use visual C ++ and MFC class library to design simulation software platform for the calculation of kill probability of both percussion fire and proximity shooting weapon system. Calculation of kill probability through this platform can analysis the effect of the error characteristics on the calculation results. The analysis can also calculate the relationship between different initial parameters and kill probability. The conclusions can be used to guide the research for testing weapon system and weapon effectiveness,it can also provide a convenient and reliable way to analysis the damage effectiveness of weapon system. |