Analysis Of Forage Reserve For The Effects Of Herdsman Deal With The Disaster Risk

In recent years, due to increased soil erosion and grassland degradation degree, grassland ecosystem resilience becoming weaker. Under the influence of global climate change, snowstorms, droughts and other natural disasters occur frequently. These potential threats seriously hampered the healthy development of grassland animal husbandry and society of pastoral economy.In this paper, let the changes of herdsman forage reserve as perspective, the database from more than 50 face-to-face interviews. Using panel data regression analysis and other quantitative analysis method to get the relationship between forage reserves and other variables. Elucidate the forage reserve in grasslands livestock production has a significant impact and plays an important role, such as the relationship between winter forage, fodder reserves and herdsman total revenue, net income and slaughter livestock income; The effect of winter forage and feed reserves to December basis weight of ewes and lambs average survival rate. The herdsman productivity relations on December basis average weight of ewe.The results show that the winter forage and fodder reserves increased year by year in research area, and fodder effect on the herdsman total revenue and net income increased more significantly than forage. Herdsman total forage and forage units sheep daily quantity significant effect on December basis average weight of ewe, and the main impact from the supply of forage quantity rather than the amount of fodder. The survival rate of lambs increased while the December basis average weight of ewe gain, and the large sheep showed a significant downward trend in mortality. The average gross weight of slaughter lambs and slaughter income get increased when the December basis average weight of ewe increase, thereby enabling the total revenue and net income of the herdsman livestock rise.The results of this study confirmed the forages is the basis of grassland animal husbandry production and management, it is an important factor to achieve scale, intensive, modern and sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry production which in the modern transformation of grassland animal husbandry production, winter and disaster prevention, improve livestock quality and other aspects have played an extremely important role. On the other hand, forage and fodder for enhancing the resilience have a greater difference. Therefore, this paper recommends further integration of feeding and grazing methods to do the system analysis for the herdsman sustainable business model in high-risk conditions.