The Risk Management Of Animal Epidemics

The spreading of Brucellosis epidemic will not only lead to heavy economic losses forthe industry of living sheep, but aslo has posed a threat to human’s health and safety. Atpresent, the sheep breeding industry in China has taken some precaution measures to preventsheep from infecting with brucellosis, but the effect is not good enough. Therefore, a riskanalysis and prediction of the sheep brucellosis was conducted, and the correspondingprecaution and control measures were also included in this paper. The whole model of sheepbrucellosis in Hinggan League was first established, on which the subregional pathes modelbased was set up subsequently. Combined with the geographic information system(GIS), theditributing condition of sheep brucellosis was analyzed in different districts of HingganLeague. This paper is organized as follows:The first chapter, mainly presents the related theory of brucellosis, risk management andgeographic information system Firstly, the background knowledge, including characteristicsand infection syndrome, of brucellosis epidemic was introduced. Then, the basic theory ofrisk, risk management, risk management of animal epidemics was also described. Finally, thedefinition, composition and development of geographic information system were brieflyintroduced, as well as the main contents of this article.In the second chapter, based on the risk factors of sheep brucellosis in Hinggan League,cyclical dynamics model has been set up. Sensitivity analysis was carried out through themodel, the consequences were predicted as well. Precaution and control measures wereconcluded according to the prediction results above. In the third chapter, there are differences between both the risk brought by the epidemicdisease to different regions, and the prevalent rate in different regions. Subregional patheswere added to the research model above, so periodic subregional pathes dynamic spreadingmodel was built. The risk analysis of Hinggan League’s six counties was conducted. With thehelp of geographic information system, risk charts of Hinggan League sheep Brucellosis wereplotted under various measures. Last, precaution and control measures proposed of thedisease were assessed.The fourth chapter summarizes this paper, and presents some possible directions of theproblems.