The Research Of Demand Conditions And Countermeasures For The Elderly-care Social Assistance In Shanghai

With the aging intensified and the increasing of disabled elders, elderly-care is increasingly prominent especially in Shanghai. In the elderly, the care needs of the poor and disabled elders are more urgent. How to meet the care needs of the "double-trouble"(economic hardship and difficulties of daily living) elderly becomes the reason for writing this paper.In this paper, on the basis of the review of domestic and international literatures, we find that the essential difference between elderly-care social assistance and elderly-care social security is that they have different objects and different standards. So we study the elderly-care social assistance through this difference.Firstly, we analyze the status of the needs for elderly-care social assistance in Shanghai by using the data of the investigation named "national urban and rural elderly population status of follow-up investigation" launched by China Research Center on Aging in2010. We do the descriptive statistical analysis and contingency table analysis by using STATA. Then we analyze the current situation and problems of the development of the elderly-care social assistance in Shanghai.Secondly, we use Markov model to calculate the elderly disabled state transition matrix, which is a major feature and innovation of this article and forecast the scale of the disabled elders for the next40years. We take the A and B two programs. A program is to predict for Hukou disabled elderly and B program is to predict for resident disabled elderly. In this basis, we forecast the needs for elderly-care social assistance with two programs. One is based on the current standards of the care service subsidy in Shanghai. The other is based on the market price of the care service in Shanghai.Finally, following the analysis of the demand conditions and forecast results for elderly-care social assistance, we propose countermeasures in elderly-care social assistance divided into internal and external systems. Internal system includes objects, standards, service content, service delivery, human resources and quality controlling. External system includes laws, financial support, social organizations and community involvement and family support.The main results of this study is to construct a state transition matrix for disabled elders and forecast the needs of elderly-care social assistance in both schemes. We analyze the current situation of elderly-care social assistance in Shanghai and predict the future needs of elderly-care social assistance based on it. This has a certain reference and guidance for the system of elderly-care social assistance in the future.