Research On Case-based Reasoning For Decision-making Of Sudden Incidents

Emergency decision is the core content and one of the key aspects of emergencymanagement, which can be related to the level of effectiveness of emergency management.However, as all categories of emergencies are sudden, catastrophic intertwined with thecomplex evolution, on the one hand, the emergency decision is always being faced with theshort decision time, the lack of decision-making information, the changing environment,the unconventional process of decision-making and all the other unfavorable conditions; onthe other, decisions need to take full account of not only the happening, the developmentand evolution of the incidents’ stages, but also the uncertainty effects of measures whendealing with the resource consumption and performance of embodiment. How to useadvanced technology to grasp the key factors that are affecting the emergency decisions toexplore a more scientific and efficient emergency management decision-making method iscurrently an urgent need to be solved, this paper intends to carry out some in-depth studiesof the issue.The paper is based on a large number of domestic and foreign literature analyses, afterproposing the following characteristics as different emergency types, dynamic evolution,complex disposal manners, timing of development; it requests the need for emergencydecision-making tasks. Based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the paper offers aclosed-loop progressive mode of the case-based reasoning methods for emergencydecision-making as "Operation-Feedback-Correction-Reoperation". And the mentalactivity of decision-makers making schemes can be defined as five stages of "Brewing-Hint-Inspired-Epiphany-Verify", of which the "Epiphany" stage is the most importantone when decision-makers come to the initial formation of its plan. Finally, it summarizesthe path of interactions between Human and Machine may be including: thepositive-oriented path as directly heuristic interaction, analogized drawing style,human-machine cooperation; and passive-oriented path as the subsidiary style,autocratically self-satisfied style, and the aggressive type. It also proposes a conceptualmodel of target case’s decision-making scheme asD Ds*Rx*Ix, which describesthe implementation mechanism of decision-makers coming to decisions at the "Epiphany"stage, with the help of case-based reasoning.With the help of "Man-Machine-Environment" systems engineering theory, it studies from the three-dimensional of the decision makers (subjectivity), the case and case-base(objectivity), and the environment of emergency to find out constraints of decision-making.And it builds a system structure model with30kinds of factors in order to derive the direct,indirect and infrastructure influencing elements. The paper can be of significant importanceto help deeply understand and greatly improve the emergency case-based reasoningapproach and it fully enhances the efficiency and effectiveness when making emergencydecisions finally.