Research On Emergency Scenario Decision-Making Scheme Generation Method Based On Emergency Cases

Emergencies occurred frequently with the advance of human socialization process,and it possesses features of sudden, complexity and uncertain which caused the traditional "predict-response" mode can not response them effectively. So the "scenario-response"mode was prop osed and has become an basic paradigm to response emergencies effectively. Change of emer gency response mode raised new demands for emergency decision-making. Scenarios are the more fine-grained description of emergencies,so the decision-making problems in scenario ar e more specific,and needs to develop the emergency scenario decision-making scheme timely according to the convert of scenarios. Frequent scenario decision-making made the traditional artificial decision-making scheme difficult to adapt the needs of "scenario-response" mode. T herefore, how to provide specific and practical support for emergency scenario decision-maki ng and reduce the difficulty of the emergency scenario decision-making scheme’s developme nt became the urgent research problem which need to be solved.There are large number of specific, enforceable "scenario-response" empirical knowledg e recorded in emergency cases, use this information in scientific and rational way can provide support for emergency scenario decision-making. In order to meet needs of "situational-respo nse"mode,this paper presents a method of emergency scenario decision-making based on eme rgency cases.Firstly,analyses the key elements of emergency decision-making’s various stage s, defines emergency scenario decision-making as the study object of this paper,and construct es the emergency scenario decision-making framework based on emergency cases. Secondly, studies the process to obtain alternate emergency scenario decision-making schemes from the emergency cases. Combinding the characteristics of emergency,it proposes the emergency’sc enario representation method according to the knowledge emlement theory and scenario theor y. Based emergency’scenario representation,use the case retrieval and scenario retrieval to ob tain alternate emergency scenario decision-making schemes from the emergency cases. In ord er to improve the rationality of scenario retrieval, presents a hazard bearing body weight calcu lation methods in scenario and enhance the scientific of the hazard bearing body weight in see nario.Then,amende and applicate the alternate emergency scenario decision-making schemes t o generate the current scenario’s emergency scenario decision-making scheme.The alternative scenario decision-making schemes are divided into hazard bearing body’s alternative emergen cy activities vectors.Evaluate the emergency activities vector from suspects of loss value and subsequent impacts through the implementation effect in emergency case which included the vector. Calculat the utility value in scenario of each hazard bearing body’s alternative emerge ncy activities vectors according to the results of the evaluation. Then proposes the generation method about current scenario’s emergency scenario decision-making scheme based on the alternative emergency activities vector’s utility value in scenario,to provide support for emerg ency scenario decision-making.Finally, apply the method which is proposed in this paper into Chongqing chemical benzene spill scenario’s response,develop a specific emergency scenario decision-making scheme for the scenario, and prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the me thod.The emergency scenario decision-making method based on emergency cases which is pr oposed in this paper is more suitable for "scenario-response" mode,decompose the real-time e mergency decision-making problem into the specific emergency scenario decision-making pr oblem, clarify the decision-making problem and the scope of decision-making, reduce uncert ainty of emergency decision. At the same time, make full use of "scenario-response" empirica 1 knowledge in emergency cases to generate the emergency scenario decision-making scheme, improve the feasibility and effectiveness of the emergency scenarios decision-making, reduce the pressure of decision makers.