Research On Emergency Management Of City Large-scale Activities Stampede Based On Accident Tree Method

With the rapid development of China’s economic,the increasing number ofactivities is held,leading to the limited public space frequency and density of crowdflow increasing,resulting in the extremely increased of crowd movements frequencyand intensity in public space,which makes the crowd Stampede caused by expansivegathering risk probability increased greatly.At present,the lack of effective evaluationof their own risk of large-scale activities stampede,owing to the absence of a set of itsrisk integrity,universal and effective evaluation criteria and evaluation grade resultedin no mature theory for safety risk management,available models and methods havealso remained a great headache in applications as before.Therefore,establishing a setof events risk evaluation index system and evaluation model is particularly important.Based on the perspective of risk management,on the basis of the Chinese andabroad caused by the stampede accident causation analysis and summary,analysis thecauses of the stampede from the risk of facilities and equipment、population factors、construction design risk and external environmental factors,emphasis on the key toprevent and control stampede is to improve safety management level of crowd safetyguidance and educational enhancement.In this paper,through case study method,drawing on existing research of scholarsstampede index system,tracking the rule of events stampede reasons,large-scaleactivities stampede accident tree is constructed by introducing fault tree method.Inorder to solve this problem for the traditional mathematical model in the stampederisk is difficult to quantify, through the construction of large-scale activities stampederisk evaluation index system,we put forward the suitable for large-scale activitiesstampede security risk evaluation method — mutation progression method bytrade-offing analysis various other safety evaluation method,and get the quantitativeassessment value in accordance with the actual situation through evaluating the risk oflarge activity stampede.The example shows that this indicator system and evaluationmethod can solve large-scale activities trampling accident risk assessmentproblems,and provide a reliable basis and method for stampede risk prevention.