| The United States and Cuba severed diplomatic relations since the beginning of the Cold War, and remained hostile even after the end of the Cold War. America imposed economic sanctions on Cuba, aggravating the conflicts between them. However, on December17th2014, both countries declared to normalize diplomatic relations, which was the most significant breakthrough for more than fifty years. Why the U.S. and Cuba made such policy change, what specific steps they would take, what the influences and challenges are, all these questions are worthy of thorough research. Taking this historic breakthrough as the starting point, this thesis tries to analyze US-Cuba relations with analytic hierarchy process and methodology of historical analysis.The United States used to take Cuban Island as its natural appendage till1959Cuban Revolution, when the ideological difference between these two counties emerged and broke their relations eventually. Since then on these two remained enemies despite intermittent negotiations. Nevertheless, after2008the world witnessed their reconciliation with increasing positive official interactions, obvious progress of bilateral negotiations of trade, immigration, travel, remittance, spy etc., and finally the normalization.Applying analytic hierarchy process, this thesis reveals multi-level causes of the normalization of US-Cuba relations. First, on the international level, under the current trend of peaceful development and globalization, major powers such as China, Russia and EU increasingly value their relations with Cuba; Latin American countries under the predominance of left-wing administrations support Cuba and pressure U.S. to lift sanctions. Besides, Canada, as one of the only two countries who never severed diplomatic relations and have close trade ties with Cuba, has been always devoted to improving US-Cuba relations; Vatican, with its great religious influence and the constant efforts of successive Popes, also played a positive role in this process. These two counties provide strong and direct supports for US-Cuba reconciliation. Second, on the state level, normalization is in the best interests of both countries. On one hand, under the principle of Smart Power diplomacy, Obama administration prefers multilateral negotiation and cooperation, and to improve its relations with Cuba can win the trust of Latin America and gain a greater edge in its influence rivalry with other major powers over this continent. As for the domestic makeup of U.S., the traditional Cuban American lobbies, the most active advocate of sanction policy, become more and more moderate with the prevalence of the post-cold-war generation who has less painful memory of Castro government; the business lobbies keep urging the government to remove the trade barrier of access to a more open Cuban market, especially the agriculture lobbies whose products account for the main portion of US export to Cuba. Thus the domestic need for a milder, updated Cuba policy leads to the greatest policy change made for more than half century. On the other hand, Cuba has undertaken domestic reform and developed diplomatic relations for years to break U.S. isolation, projecting an open, modern and ready-for-change image on the world stage, gaining broad support from the international community; reconciliation with U.S. would ease its long-lasting hardship of development and ensure a stable environment for its ongoing reform. Third, on the personal level, leaders of both sides want to change their relations. As the first black president of U.S., Obama’s growing experience cultivated his perseverant, peace-loving and inclusive personality, and to change the failed sanctions would be an impressive success of his presidency. Raul Castro, different from his radical brother Fidel Castro, is more low-profile and pragmatic, and guaranteeing the reform is the priority of his government. Normalization of their relations is the choice of mutual interest for both leaders.US-Cuba relations normalization can impose positive influences on both countries, the Americas and the whole world. U.S. can cut loose the shackles of the past and regain its regional and world leadership; Cuba can get huge opportunity for its future development; the Americas eliminate the major unstable factor and will move towards deeper regional integration; China, Russian and EU would benefit from the more open and transparent business environment of Cuba, and the whole world can reach for a more bright future of peace and justice.Nonetheless, the future development of U.S.-Cuba relations is still confronted with several challenges. First, the ideological differences of two countries cause disputes over policy goals and political institutions. U.S. changes its Cuba policy to promote American democracy and values in Cuba through engagement; but Cuba urges U.S. to lift the sanctions first and insists its socialist institution. Second, Obama has to deal with the domestic faction that wants to continue sanctions, especially the conservative Republicans who have controlled the Congress after the midterm election of2014and made statements opposing Obama’s efforts to end the embargo, because the embargo approved by the legislation has to be lifted by the Congress, even though Obama has limited authority to act without Congress. Third, Cubans also have controversy over the reform, which adds uncertainty to the future of Cuba as well as US-Cuba relations.With all the analysis above, this thesis comes to the conclusion that although the negotiation has begun, US-Cuba relations would not be fully normalized in a short term; while peace and cooperation is the irresistible trend of their bilateral relations, and the model of US-China relations and US-Vietnam relations can be reference for US-Cuba relations. |
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