Research On Technology Opportunity Analysis Method Based On Node Importance Degree And Similarity

Technology becomes increasingly competitive, the environment becomes increasingly complex and competitive.Global technical behavior cause the emergence of a large number of technology opportunities. Who can predict technology opportunities, who will be able to seize the initiative in the competition. Technology opportunities analysis is of great significance for national defense and army building. New military revolution is in the ascendant, military information construction is further promote.To strengthen technology opportunity analysis, is becoming a national consensus. However, the existing concept definition of technology opportunity analysis is more general, theoretical research is not deep enough, research methodology is relatively simple, over-reliance on experts, advice, study at more limited level, consideration is not comprehensive enough. This paper analyzes the existing problems of the technology opportunities issues, the main contents and innovations are as follows:(1) The connotation and denotation of the concept of technology opportunitiy analysis should be described clearly. Based on the deep understanding of the relevant literature,believe that the technology opportunity analysis is the integrated use of technology monitoring techniques and bibliometric analysis methods, via the corresponding data mining tools, mining depth information of scientific journals and other data resources, further sorting, processing and analyzing the collected information, exploring relationships and trends of the existing technologies, sub-technologies and other factors, and grasping the latest trends in this technical field, discovering potential technology opportunity.(2) Propose and build four levels and methodological framework of technology opportunity analysis. Considering that the traditional technology opportunity analysis is more confined to microscopic morphological analysis, put forward the idea that to analyze technology opportunities at cosmoscopic, macro, meso and micro levels, And appropriately describes the theory and methods which may be used at all levels,construct a general framework for technology opportunity analysis.(3) Build a network model of technology opportunity analysis. Technology breakdown structure(TBS)based on reductionism reflects the complexity of technical systems not enough. Simple hierarchical modeling reflects the actual system not precise enough, difficult to obtain analysis conclusions of high degree of reliability and validity. Technology systems network model based on co-occurrence keywords network is an obvious improvement.(4) Analysis technology opportunities based on netweb node importance and similarity. What is technology opportunities? Technology opportunities how to behave in the technology network? Choose what indicators to evaluate technology opportunities in the technical network? Evolution of nodes and edges means what technology opportunities in an technical network? …… This paper attempts to answer these questions, and establish model of technology opportunity analysis at the micro level.(5) Take the technology of "supercomputer" as an example for analysis and verification. Take the technology of "supercomputer",which reflects the country’s comprehensive national strength, as an example. Verified that the technology opportunity analysis method which based on the importance degree and similarity of network nodes is feasible and effective, and give the results of the analysis, combined with relevant literature gives a comprehensive evaluation on the results of the analysis.