Research On Dissemination And Government Response Of Internet Public Opinion From Unexpected Public Events Based On The System Dynamics Model

With the rapid development and highly popularity of Internet technology, the network has become an important platform for people to release, acquire and exchange information with its own characteristics such as openness, instant and interactivity. Network plays an important role in expressing public opinion and disseminating information. At the same time, network has gradually become an important place for breeding and intensifying social problems and contradictions. With the development of economy and transformation of society, our country has entered a high-risk period, which is full of contradictions and unexpected public events. Unexpected public events also cause hot discussions of the Internet users once it is exposed on the network. The different ideas, opinions, emotions, attitudes about unexpected public events will collect and collide on the Internet. It makes network public opinion play an increasingly important role in the evolution of unexpected public events. It could promote the spread and upgrade of unexpected public events and bring more and more profound influence to our social life.Network has advantages and disadvantages. It gives us opportunities and brings an unprecedented challenge. On the one hand, network provides the public a platform to express their views, which will help them to participate in the discussion of social issues or problems better. On the other hand, network makes the hot or focus problem in our social life develop into public opinion in a very short period of time which influence the formulation of national policy. Therefore, grasping the key factors that affect the public opinion dissemination of unexpected public events and explore their mutual relations and mechanism is important for the government to guide the online public opinion and make it develop towards the right direction. It has great significance to China’s social stability and economic development.In this paper, we study the influence factors of network public opinion dissemination of the unexpected public events by applying crisis life cycle theory, complex system theory and the spiral of silence theory. These factors includes the event itself, Internet users, media attention, government’s intervention and network public opinion ecological environment.. A system dynamics model is established based on the system dynamics. The built model is simulated with Vensim software and the simulation results show that it can fit the evolution of network public opinion well. Additionally, through investigating three moderator variables including the sensitivity of the unexpected public event, the identification of the government and ecological environment of network public opinion in the proposed model, this paper found that these variables could affect the propagation of network public opinion significantly. Based on these conclusions, some suggestions are provided for the government to deal with network public opinion of unexpected public event.