Research On The Spreading Of Rumors And Coping Strategies Of Mass Emergencies

With China’s economic development stepping into an important stage, The diversity of social contradictions is increasingly exposed. In recent years the problems of mass emergencies emerge in an endless stream, ranging from the ones to trigger splittism of Tibet and xinjiang conducted by the destructive forces to the small ones which lead to the dispute of social life, doctor-patient conflicts, etc. Each uncertain factor could arouse the occurrence of mass incidents. The wide spread of rumors will influence the consequences of mass incidents. So it is particularly important to make forecast and take effective measures for mass emergencies rumors spread,.Firstly, this paper introduced the research background and research significance of this article by reading the literature both at home and abroad and proposed the research goal, purpose and methods.Secondly, introducing the related theory of the content of this paper including the characteristics of mass emergencies, the main impact, and the reasons and channels of mass emergencies rumor spread.Thirdly, through the analysis of the rules of the diffusion of the rumors of mass emergencies, the impact parameters of the rumor spread of mass emergencies was determined. The model was established based on these parameters and corresponded with the basic Bass model. The concept of the core area and non core area were introduced based on this model and An improved BASS model was obtained through deducing.Meanwhile,Using Matlab software to simulate and analyze the improved Bass mode.Fourthly, in order to verify the universality of the non core area and the core area,the model was set according to the Agent model by analyzing the characteristics of Agent rumor diffusion from the angle of mass subject, the media and the government body. The basic Agent model was improved by introducing the concept of core area and non core area so as to obtain an improved Agent rumor diffusion model. Meanwhile, simulation results were analyzed using Netlogo software towards the improved Agent model.Finally, proposing the relevant suggestions and advises according to the rumorspreading of mass emergencies through combining the simulation results of the advanced Bass model and Agent model.