Research On The Decision Making Of Group Emergency With Antagonism Response

In recent years, The frequently occurring of public emergencies in our country not only seriously affected the social order, but also brought great threat on country’s social stability and peace. So how policy makers to make the optimal emergency decision-making strategy when confrontational group emergencies occurs, and to quell the shortest of emergencies, make the study of emergency decision-making strategy of confrontational group emergencies became the hotspot issues and priorities. Based on this, it is necessary for confrontational group of emergency decision-making strategy for research.First of all, the confrontational group of emergency decision-making strategies related research status at home and abroad were reviewed, elaborated the paper selected topic significance, and related theories are reviewed on the use of the paper were summarized.Secondly, Groups of emergencies adversarial influencing factors were analyzed, including its definition, including the define of Adversarial groups emergencies,Rivalries and feature descriptions, Geographical influencing factors and the event own impact analysis. It analyzes and summarizes the classification criteria emergencies confrontational posture, It laid the theoretical foundation for the studies of confrontational group emergency policy decisions.Once again, according to the characteristics of the confrontational group emergency process, we define a emergency decision-making process in the case of missing public opinion information.According to the characteristics of the combat group, based on markov first reaches the target model, we establish two confrontational group of emergency decision-making model, and analyzes the decision-making processes, by Equivalent transformation of the two models, Put forward and proves the existence of the optimal statinary policy, the optimal statinary policy finally solved the problem of group antagonism、event calm time.In the end, In guangdong maoming PX as background, a brief introduction of guangdong maoming PX the occurrence of the incident and its aggressive behavior is given, on this basis, we analysis the guangdong maoming PX emergency ecision-making strategies with the actual data, and proved the practicability and validity of decision strategies.