Quantitative Analysis Of Population Changes And The Transformation Of Economic Growth Mode In OECD

Since the1990s, China’s population has entered the stage of a low fertility rate.According to the sixth national population census data, China’s total fertility rate hasdecreased to below1.5, and this low fertility level will continue. Long-term low fertility ratemakes a dramatic change in the development of China’s population. The population growth isabout to stagnate, the structure of population is aged, the burden of labor is improving, we paymore attention to the elderly burden now, and the population environment which is suitablefor extensive economic growth will also cease to exist. So China should adjust the mode ofeconomic growth in order to adapt to the new environment.Based on the existing theory of economic growth, we analysis the factors that affectingthe transformation of the mode of economic growth from the point of view of demography.By selecting panel data of17OECD countries from1961to2010, this paper built a fixedeffect model to examine the impact of demographic factors on the transformation of economicgrowth mode by comparison of models and variables. And the key of this paper is to analysesthe characteristics and experiences at different stages.After inputting the panel data into Eviews6.0, the output functions show that suchvariables as population growth rate, population density, birth rate, migration rate, labor forceproportion and schooling have different impact on the transformation of economic growthmode. That is to say, the demographic factors are significant in one model and not significantin the other. Apart from this, the influences of diverse demographic factors on economicgrowth mode vary from country to country, a difference caused by the discrepancy ofpopulation effect among countries.Through the experience of OECD countries we can find that the transformation ofChina’s economic growth mode has a long way to go. Accelerating scientific andtechnological development and increasing the contribution of scientific and technologicaladvances to economic growth are important means of improving the pattern and quality of economic growth. And only in this way can we promote the long-term and stabledevelopment of China’s economy.