The Impact Of Population Aging On China's Economic Growth And Its Countermeasures

With the continuous improvement of economic development and life expectancy,China has become one of the countries with the largest number of elderly population in the world and the fastest speed of aging development.Compared with other developed countries in the world,China has entered an aging society ahead of schedule under the condition that its economic and social security is not very developed and perfect,and it has not yet achieved a well-off society in an all-round way.Population aging has brought severe challenges to China's development from economic and social aspects.The impact and challenge of population aging on China's economic and social development are manifested in the speed,welfare and quality of economic growth.It not only affects the quantity of economic growth indirectly through influencing labor force,capital,technological progress and income inequality,but also directly affects the quantity of economic growth through output,and directly affects the quality of economic growth through the comprehensive index of total factor productivity and economic growth quality.In this regard,based on the reality of China's population,economic and social development,this paper studies the impact of population aging on China's economic growth from the perspective of theoretical and empirical integration,with a view to providing valuable reference for the formulation of China's future aging policy and the adjustment of economic development strategy.Following the logical thinking of "theoretical Analysis-Empirical test-policy recommendations",this study is mainly divided into the following steps: first,combing and reviewing the existing theories and research results of population aging and economic growth at home and abroad,laying a solid theoretical foundation and support for the later analysis;secondly,analyzing population aging from the perspective of factor input The mechanism and results of the impact of aging on labor supply,fixed assets investment and technological progress,which further supports the indirect effect of population aging on economic growth through factor input;third,from the perspective of output,the mechanism and results of population aging affecting output are analyzed by constructing a mathematical model of population aging and output,and then empirical analysis is conducted to verify the impact of population aging on economic growth.The direct effect of economic growth;Fourthly,the mechanism and results of the impact of population ageing on income inequality are analyzed from the perspective of distribution equity,which further supports the indirect effect of population ageing on economic growth through income distribution;Fifthly,the comprehensive index of total factor productivity and economic growth quality is used to analyze the effect of population ageing on narrow-sense economic growth quality and broad-sense economic growth quality.In order to compensate for the defect of analyzing the impact of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of economic growth quantity,this paper aims to analyze the impact of population aging on economic growth.Based on the two dimensions of economic core elements: increment and quality,this paper focuses on the impact of population ageing on the quantity of economic growth in the process of input,output and distribution of supply-side factors,and the impact of population ageing on the quality of economic growth in the narrow and broad sense.The main conclusions are as follows:1.Studying the indirect effect of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of factor input,we find that population aging not only does not lead to the decrease of labor participation rate in China,but also promotes the increase of labor participation rate.Population aging can have a positive impact on economic growth by increasing labor participation rate.Population aging has a significant positive impact on fixed assets investment.Population aging brings new "savings motivation" which leads to the increase of fixed assets investment and promotes economic growth.Population aging has a positive role in promoting technological progress,which has both short-term and long-term effects.The short-term effects are relatively strong,the long-term effects are gradually weakening,and the population aging has a positive impact on technology.The influence of technological progress has undergone a significant trend change.We can make full use of the positive impact of population aging on technological progress to promote economic growth.2.Studying the impact of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of output,the study found that population aging has a positive impact on economic growth,and this impact presents an inverted V-shaped trend of change;time series analysis ignoring cross-sectional differences shows that the positive effect of population aging on economic growth shows a U-shaped dynamic trend with time;ignoring the individual with time trend.Body analysis shows that there are significant regional differences in the impact of population aging on economic growth.Generally speaking,the impact of population aging on economic growth is complex,uncertain and regional imbalance.Therefore,the formulation of countermeasures for population aging in China should vary from time to place.3.Studying the indirect effect of population aging on economic growth from the angle of income distribution,we find that the income inequality in the first lag period has a significant positive effect on itself,the economic growth in the first lag period has a significant positive effect on itself,and the aging in the fourth lag period has a significant negative impact on economic growth,which shows that income inequality and economic growth are mainly affected by itself.The influence of inertia,the income gap in the early stage will widen the income gap in the future,while the economic growth in the early stage can promote future economic growth,and only when the aging accumulates to a certain extent will it have a negative impact on economic growth;The negative impact of aging on economic growth increases with the extension of the lag period,which indicates that population aging has a gradually enhanced inhibitory effect on economic growth.Aging has the greatest positive impact on income inequality in the first period,and then gradually stabilized.This shows that ageing has a negative effect on income inequality and it is gradually decreasing.Population aging,economic growth and income inequality have a greater contribution to their variance,indicating that there are obvious positive feedback phenomena among them.Past changes can explain current changes to a greater extent.4.From the narrow point of view of the quality of economic growth,we analyze the impact of population aging on total factor productivity.The study finds that at the national level,the impact of population aging on total factor productivity in different provinces is quite different.not only the direction of influence is different,but also the degree of influence is different.the influence of control variable human capital,technology import and independent R&D on total factor productivity is also quite different,which may be related to the degree of population aging and the level of economic development in different provinces.At the regional level,the impact direction of population aging on TFP is the same and all of them are negative,but the degree of impact is slightly different.The negative impact of population aging on TFP is not significant in the western and northeastern regions,the negative impact of population aging on TFP is relatively obvious in the central and Eastern regions,especially in the central regions.Regional studies show that population ageing has indeed inhibited the growth of regional total factor productivity in China,and there are obvious regional differences in the inhibiting effect of population ageing on total factor productivity.5.From the perspective of the quality of broad economic growth,we analyze the impact of population aging on the comprehensive index of economic growth quality.We find that the influence coefficient of population aging on the quality of economic growth is not significant,the influence coefficient of industrial structure,foreign trade and financial structure of control variables on the quality of economic growth is not significant,too,only environmental factors have a significant positive impact on the quality of economic growth.This shows that environmental factors play a relatively prominent role in the quality of economic growth,and improving the environment has a significant role in promoting the quality of economic growth in China.To sum up,we believe that: at this stage,population aging has not significantly inhibited China's economic growth,on the contrary,in some aspects,population aging has a positive role in promoting economic growth.Therefore,we can completely abandon the negative view of some scholars that unilaterally exaggerate the negative impact of population ageing and the pessimistic mood it brings.We should face the reality of population ageing objectively.Although the positive impact of population ageing on economic growth is mostly,there are also some negative aspects.The impact of population aging on economic growth is a double-edged sword.We should try our best to avoid and resolve the negative aspects of population aging affecting economic growth.On the contrary,we should make full use of the positive aspects of population aging affecting economic growth.Taking flexible and changeable population aging policy to actively respond to aging and turn challenges into opportunities is the key to promoting stable economic growth of China in the future.