The Influence Of Changes In Population Age Structure On Economic Growth

The population age structure is an evolving process, and with different countries, different regions have different impacts. China from1982to2009, the children、adult and old age composition of the population changing description of China’s population age structure change speed, and time is short, and is moving toward the aging society. Because of the imbalance of China’s family planning、regional development urban and rural pattern by serious cultural influence of Confucianism, resulting in China’s population age structure with Chinese characteristics. East Asia’s population age structure changes status analysis of very large reference to China, especially Japan, has completed the entire change process of the population age structure; the study of Japan’s population age structure has a very large reference for China. This paper mainly focus on the theory of the "Troika", empirical analysis of child dependency burden, old age dependency burden and savings, consumption, the current empirical analysis; specifically, the paper is divided into seven chapters.First Chapter is Introduction, it refers to the background of the chapter to the study, significance, and to explore the problem, the systematic exposition of the research methods, content and research framework of this article, at the end of the innovation of this paper. Chapter2introduces the domestic and international literature review of population theory, the theoretical point of view of the life cycle; introduced the foreign population age structure profile, Overview and progress of the domestic population age structure; finally, the demographic dividend described to introduce the concept and its characteristics. Chapter3describes the characteristics of China’s population age structure changes since the founding of the status quo and future trends, the population age structure variable set to determine the child dependency burden, the burden of elderly dependency and total dependency burden; then proposed three linkage transmission mechanism to analyze the dependency burden and savings, consumption, and current. Chapter4is based on the basis of Chapter3, the data collected from1982to2009, EVIEWS software on the population age structure and savings, consumption and current account empirical analysis and concluded. Chapter5describes the East Asian miracle, Japan’s population age structure profiles, and analysis of how to deal with the population age structure changes, the Government’s response to Chapter6mentioned combined with the reality of our country for population issues, scientific and rational proposals. Chapter7is the last section.In this paper, the model data analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis method of combining the data on the population of our country over the years, the var model analysis, to explore whether the population age structure and economic growth there is a link. Analysis of the spatial contrast, the contrast with Japan’s population age structure analysis put forward some policy recommendations.