| The change of population age structure has become the most remarkable feature of China's population structure.The most obvious change of population age structure is the aging of the population,followed by the decrease of children and working age population.The aging population is the dominant direction of the age structure of the population and is becoming a staged trend of China's economic and social development.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China stated that actively responding to the aging of the population is an urgent task to adapt to the new normal of economic development and to build a well-off society in an all-round way.Based on this,this paper focuses on the impact of changes in the age structure of the population on the economy,and how the changes in the age structure of the population affect the economy through material capital and human capital,and empirically study the spatial spillover effects of population age structure changes,the impact of changes in the age structure of the population between the regions on the internal and external aspects of the region,and finally combined with the research and analysis to give suggestions on the impact of population age changes on economic growth.Through sorting out the literature at home and abroad,analyzing and researching,it is found that experts and scholars at home and abroad have made fruitful achievements in the research of population dividend and population aging on economic growth.The research on the impact of population age structure on economic growth also shows the characteristics of vertical deepening,but there are already studies on economic growth.The analysis of every angle of view is not comprehensive enough,so this paper combines the existing literature and carries on further research and analysis according to the neoclassical economic theory.Because capital,labor force and technological progress are very important to economic growth,and changes in the age structure of population will affect people's capital accumulation and changes in the supply of labor force,this paper follows the thinking of "research basis-theoretical model Construction-Empirical analysis-conclusions and countermeasures" and applies life cycle theory and generations.The overlapping model and Solow's economic growth theory analyze the influence of population age structure changes on economic growth from consumption-savings,human capital and spatial spillover.The following conclusions are drawn:The influence of population age structure change on consumption-savings is derived: the core agent variable of population age structure changes The old-age dependency ratio and children's dependency ratio on consumption are consistent with the derivation results of the extended three-generation overlapping model in the paper.The old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the household consumption rate,which is consistent with the life cycle consumption theory.The coefficient of influence of the old-age dependency ratio on the household consumption rate is 0.359,that is,the old-age dependency ratio is increased by 1%,which will cause the household consumption level to increase by 0.359%.The children's dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on household consumption rates,with a corresponding coefficient of 0.364,passing the 1% significance level.Changes in old-age support have no significant effect on household savings rate.The children's dependency ratio has a positive impact on the household savings rate.According to the sub-region,the changes in the age structure of the eastern,central and western populations have different effects on the consumption and savings of residents.The old-age dependency ratio and the children's dependency ratio in the eastern region have a negative impact on the consumption of the residents.And the the children's dependency ratio has a positive impact on household consumption.The old-age dependency ratio and the children's dependency ratio in the central and western regions have a significant positive impact on the household savings rate.The old-age dependency ratio in the eastern region has a significant positive impact on the household savings rate,The child dependency ratio has no significant effect on the household savings rate.The impact of changes in the age structure of the population on human capital,without considering the mediating variables,the changes in the old-age dependency ratio and the the children's dependency ratio will have a certain negative effect on economic growth.As the number of elderly population increases,the aging society The arrival will slow the pace of economic growth.The mediating effect of human capital through the old-age dependency ratio on economic growth shows that the change in old-age dependency ratio has a significant adverse effect on healthy human capital,and the change in old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on economic growth,and the improvement of healthy human capital level on the economy growth has a significant role in promoting,and the old-age dependency ratio has been strengthened by the level of healthy human capital,which has strengthened the inhibitory effect on economic growth.Education human capital has a negative mediating effect through the old-age dependency ratio,which affects economic growth.The old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on the education human capital.The improvement of the education human capital level can significantly promote economic growth,and the age structure of the population is aging.Economic growth has a negative impact,while at the same time indirectly affecting economic growth by curbing the increase in educational human capital.The impact of changes in child rearing ratio on healthy human capital has a significant negative impact.Healthy human capital has a significant role in promoting economic growth.It can be seen that the variation in children's dependency ratio affects the mediating effect of healthy human capital in economic growth.The negative impact of the impact of healthy human capital on economic growth further indicates that changes in the children's dependency ratio can reduce the level of healthy human capital,so that changes in healthy human capital indirectly inhibit economic growth.In terms of spatial spillover effects,under three different spatial weight matrices,the impact of population age structure changes on economic growth is not only the difference between the whole and the inside,but also significant regional heterogeneity.From a general perspective: in the spatial Dubin model,the impact of old-age dependency ratio on economic growth is a positive positive impact,and the impact of the children's dependency ratio on economic growth has a negative impact.From the results of spatial weighting factors,the age structure of China's population has different effects on the economic growth of neighboring regions.The old-age dependency has a significant negative impact on the economic growth of neighboring regions.Growth has a significant positive impact.From the perspective of subregions: under three different spatial weight matrices,For the eastern region,The old-age dependency ratio has no significant effect on the economic growth of the region and neighboring regions;the children's dependency ratio has a negative impact on the economic growth of the region,and the economy of the neighboring region Growth has a significant boost.For the central region,the effect of the old-age dependency ratio on economic growth is greater than the negative impact of the children's dependency ratio change on economic growth.The spatial spillover effect of the population age structure change in the central region on economic growth is not significant.For the western region,the old-age dependency ratio has a positive impact on the economic growth of the region,and the impact on the neighboring region is not significant.The children's dependency ratio has a negative impact on the economic growth of the region and promotes the economic growth of the neighboring region. |
PDF Full Text Request