Research On The Influence Of Population Age Structure Change On Economic Growth In China

After more than 40 years of steady development,China's economy has made remarkable achievements in the world.From the macro level of economic growth,investment,import and export,government expenditure and consumption are the main driving forces of economic growth,while the core elements of micro main body of macroeconomic growth are the contribution of labor force and capital.As the main body of economic activities,labor force and population play an important role in the process of economic growth.At present,China's population age structure shows the characteristics of deepening aging and the increase of children's dependency ratio leaded by the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy.This change of population age structure has brought uncertainty to China's future economic growth.In addition,the impact of the new epidemic situation on human health and economy,therefore,it is of great practical significance and value to deeply study the influence of China's population age structure and its dynamic changes on economic growth and sustainable development,to grasp the trend of China's population change,to comprehensively consider the influence of population factors on various economic variables,and to realize the coordinated development of population and economy.In this paper,from the perspective of economic supply and demand,on the basis of decomposing the driving force of economic growth,the dynamic relationship between population age structure change and economic growth is discussed theoretically and empirically.This paper follows the general research logic and thinking of “the connotation of population age structure change-the theory of economic supply and demand and the decomposition of economic growth power-the relationship between population age structure and economic growth power(investment,government debt,current account,consumption)-the influence of population age structure change characteristics on economic growth”,and along the line of “literature review-basic theory analysis and model building-empirical analysis and explanation-put forward countermeasures”,by using the methods of theory and mechanism analysis,mathematical economics model and frontier econometric empirical model to study.The main study methods,contents and conclusions are as follows:First,for establishing the basis of theoretical and empirical research,this paper reviews the classical theory and classical research of economic growth involving population factors,summarizes the influence path and mechanism of population age structure on economic growth,and constructs the economic growth theoretical model including population age structure.Theoretical analysis shows that the influence of population age structure on economic growth is multifaceted,multi-dimensional and deep-seated.It is necessary to study the economic effects of China's population age structure not only by drawing lessons from western classical theories,but also by combining China's special national conditions and the actual economic and social development.Therefore,this paper decomposes the three driving forces of China's economic growth(investment,net export and consumption)from the perspective of economic supply and demand,tries to take the economic growth power as the transmission path,and constructs the mechanism of the influence of population age structure on China's economic growth.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper makes an empirical study on investment,current account and consumption in the following four chapters.Second,this paper empirically studies the impact of population age structure on fixed asset investment from a macro perspective.This paper establishes PVAR model to study the influence of population age structure on fixed assets investment of basic elements of economic development.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the influence coefficient between the population age structure and fixed asset investment,China's population aging significantly inhibits the growth of fixed asset investment,but the impact has a certain lag.(2)From the impulse response function of the impact of population age structure and fixed asset investment,the increase of China's elderly dependency ratio shows that it promotes and then suppresses the investment rate of fixed assets.In contrast,the increase of children's dependency ratio in China only shows the inhibition effect on the growth of fixed asset investment to a certain extent.From the perspective of regional differences,the western region has the highest impact.(3)According to the variance decomposition of population age structure and fixed asset investment,the influence of children's dependency ratio on the change of fixed asset investment rate is stronger.In addition,the difference results also show that the change of population age structure has a greater impact on the change of fixed asset investment rate in western China.Therefore,the change of old age and child dependency ratio will directly lead to the change of China's economic growth in the future.Third,this methodology,this paper studies the influence of population age structure on local government debt(government expenditure)from two aspects of theoretical analysis and empirical test.The main conclusions are as follows :(1)The influence of tax is included in the analysis framework of the relationship between population age structure and local government debt.When the burden of indirect tax reaches a certain level,the contribution of total dependency ratio to fiscal revenue may offset its burden on fiscal expenditure,which will have a favorable impact on local financial operation.(2)On the basis of theoretical analysis,a PSTR model is established to study the nonlinear characteristics of the influence of population age structure on local government debt.The empirical results show that the children's dependency burden shows “U” trend with the local government debt and the aging population dependency burden shows “inverted U” trend with the local government debt.Fourth,the influence of the change of population age structure on China's import and export trade is reflected in the dynamic change of China's current account.In this paper,from the point of view of population age structure and its change,this paper interprets the persistent reasons and development trend of current account surplus in China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The decline in the child dependency ratio has a positive promotion effect on the current account and a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth.At the same time,the increase of the elderly dependency ratio also plays an obvious role in promoting the current account and inhibiting the economic growth.This shows that the decline in the child dependency ratio and the increase in the elderly dependency ratio have resulted in the current account surplus and economic growth fall to a certain extent.(2)The comparison of the three periods shows that with the deepening of population aging,the effect of population age structure changes on the current account shows an increasing trend.(3)At the present stage of “Moderate Low Fertility-Deep Aging”,the effect of changes in population age structure on economic growth is still very obvious.Fifth,because the influence of population age structure change on consumption and demand is the sum of individual consumption and demand,based on the micro-family perspective,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population age structure changes on household consumption upgrading using 5 issues of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data.The results show that the increase of family old-age dependency ratio and children's dependency ratio will inhibit family consumption;The increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly has a significant promoting effect on the improvement of the household consumption structure,while the increase of the child dependency ratio has a significant inhibiting effect on the improvement of the household consumption structure;Family economic conditions,education level and health status can adjust the consumption demand effect and consumption upgrade effect of the family population's age structure to varying degrees.The effect of the change of population age structure on the upgrading of household consumption is more obvious in rural areas.From the research of different regions,upgrading of household consumption structure in western China is most inhibited by the increasing burden of children's dependency.Finally,according to the above theory and empirical analysis in the last chapter of the full text,this paper empirical study on the long-term and short-term impact of fertility policy adjustment on economic growth through counterfactual analysis.Empirical research shows that the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on economic growth reflects the phase difference between the long and short cycles,that is,the positive impact of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy on economic growth is better in the long-term than in the short-term.Therefore,it is necessary to ensure the durability of the comprehensive two-child policy and timely dynamic incremental adjustments,and to prepare for the mid-to long-term transition.This paper studies economic growth from the perspective of the demographic changes in the basic driving forces of economic growth,carries out theoretical exploration and a series of empirical studies,and supplements new research ideas for in-depth research on the economic effects of changes in the age structure of the Chinese population.