The Survey On Estimation Of Urban Land Expansion Limit And Boundary

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the pace of urbanization is also more and more quickly, the urban land demands is also increasing with rapid speed,therefore, the trend of urban land expansion is inevitable. Urban expand reasonably can promote the prosperity and progress of society, but if we just focus on urban land expansion without limit, and does not seek to take attention to social, economic, ecological and other different aspects, it will result in a waste of land resources, the pollution of the environment and we cannot reach to the aim of sustainable use of land.Guiyang is a typical mountain city, model of city expansion, historical trend, the temporal and spatial evolution has their own unique characteristic. Since the 90’s, economy and urbanization of Guiyang is booming, urban built-up area expands rapidly; the rapid expansion of city will result in occupation of cultivated land and other land resources. Because of typical Karst topography, complex topography, the shortage of Guiyang’s land resources compared to other regions is more serious, the exploitation is more difficult. To estimate land expansion limit and scale in Guiyang accurately can give advantage to reasonable expansion of construction land, and promote land intensive utilization.Considering this situation, this paper uses the combined method of qualitative and quantitative analysis to have a research on land expansion limit and scale of Guiyang city. First, analyze Guiyang city land expansion course and trend, which lay a foundation of the the basic influence factors of land expansion, the impact of natural, economy, demography and policy on Guiyang land expansion is analyzed, factors’ effect on land use scale is analyzed with person correlation and principal component analysis method, the impact of various factors on the land use degree, and then multiple linear regression model is used to establish the corresponding regression equation in order to predict Guiyang city land limit size. Lastly, on the control of limit size, with reference to the latest planning of Guiyang City, and use the radiation prediction method to calculate the space expansion extension, 4 centers are used to predict Guiyang city land expansion boundary.The result shows that Guiyang land use limit scale will occur in 2046, and Guiyang will achieve full stage of urbanization at that time, the ultimate size is 474.48 km2, we also find that the land expand towards the northwest district Jinyang,and northeast is Baiyun,Xintian group,Huaxi new district, and Xiaohe district. The prediction is similar to "Guiyang city master plan(2011-2020)", and it predicts that prediction model and result has higher fitting degree.