Research On The Relation Between Population Age Structure And China’s Old-age Security Development Index Under Regional Comparative Perspective

At present, China has entered the aged society. Rapid population aging brings a series of problems to the development of social economy, which is the most direct proportion up to the elderly welfare spending increased, resulting in increased expenditure for social security finance, which affects the sustainable development of national income redistribution and economic. Due to China’s vast territory and inter regional imbalances in economic and social development, the country between different provinces and regions population aging extent there are large regional differences. We should divide the country into different areas according to the degree of aging, go on the further research, and put forward specific countermeasures and suggestions.This thesis is composed of five parts:ChapterⅠ: Define the basic concept, and briefly elaborate on the related theories. Introduce old-age security development index, the population age structure, the population balance, Delphy and other related concepts. Through the analysis of appropriate social security level theory, modern theory of moderate population, population change theory, population migration push-pull theory, reveals necessity of coordination between the ageing degree and social security development level.Chapter II: Analysis of the current situation and the reasons of regional differences in population age structure. Firstly, the country is divided into four kinds of areas by using the method of cluster analysis. Then we carry on the reason analysis to the models of age structure of the population of different regions.Chapter III: Calculation and analysis of regional differences on the development index of endowment insurance. Firstly, design a formula for calculation of old-age security development index based on Delphy. Secondly, in order to eliminate the error, the index is standardized, then calculation old-age security development index using the formula. Finally, analysis of the interaction between the ageing degree and old-age security development index based method using four quadrant.Chapter IV: Future old-age security development index prediction. First of all, from the perspective of quantitative research of population age structure and interactive relationship of old-age security development index, the econometric model is established. Secondly, using the grey model to forecast the different model regions population age structure analysis. Again, the different regional per capita GDP and per capita health spending forecast analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the model district old-age security index prediction results.Chapter V: The conclusions and recommendations of this thesis, develop the aging industry suiting one’s measures to local conditions, optimize the structure of the population to construct the population balanced society, promote the balanced development of economy of different regional, improve the old-age security system through the construction of hybrid system, to achieve the coordination and interaction between population age structure and old-age security development index.