Analysis Of Chinese Population Age Structure And Aging

Although China has developed rapidly in economy, the age structure of population changed from young to aged pattern accordingly. The entire age structure of population will lose its balance or even bring a series of problems and challenges to the society. Therefore, it becomes an unavoidable problem. Aging population may lead to labor shortages easily as well as heavier pension burden in the community.This paper analyzes the current situation of China’s age structure of population which has adopted the population and the 6 censuses data form 1990 to 2013. Furthermore, three different models for the prediction of the next 5 years, 10 years 15 years of age structure of population has also adopted in this thesis. A separated analysis of the Guangdong Province age structure of population has been done so as to become the comparative data to the whole country. The main results are as followed:(1) the degree of aging population structure will continue to deepen along with a faster rate;(2) the juvenile population of the age structure will decline rapidly and surely lead to lower and lower fertility rate which may urge the adjustments done by the Chinese fertility policy;(3) there will be serious polarization in the future age structure of the population accompanying reduce in the overall fertility rate which means the juvenile population will gradually reduce while the elderly population will continue to increase on the other end of the age structure;(4) the transition of age structure in Guangdong Province lags behind the country’s population;(5) migration factor in Guangdong Province plays an important role in the age structure of population, while internal migration is the only important factor for the age structure of the whole country;(6) in the next 15 year, the proportion of people aged from 15 to 64 in Guangdong Province is higher than the national growth rate, while the proportion of population aged over 65 increases is much slower than the rate of the country, which may explain that the aging speed of the country is much faster in the next 15 years.