Analysis Of Basic School - Age Population Forecast And Educational Resource Demand In Beijing

Planning in basic education resources and changes in the school-age population has a great impact on the number of school and its reasonable distribution of the hardware and software resources, so the school-age population forecasting work is very important.Firstly, changes in factors affecting the population in Beijing were analyzed, including historical population size, its fertility and mortality. Combining with the future policy, I created a population projections Leslie matrix model, and got three assumptions of high level, medium level and low level. Then I did a prediction of the school-age population of Beijing in future, three results obtained were also analyzed and compared.Then I explored the impact about the number of school-age population in Beijing, the population distribution of different school-age stages and the different areas of the Beijing city on the scale and the structure of the investigation about basic education, and analyzed the present situation of basic educational resources in Beijing, including education funding investment and student-teacher ratio. The third chapter is then combined with to predict the number of school-age population of different stages and predict future changes in demand for educational resources in Beijing according to some parameters of the standard set of educational resources requirements. Finally, this article discussed the possibly problems and challenges of the future development of basic education in Beijing according to the current situation research and forecast results before. The future demand for basic education faculty on different stages of basic education of Beijing city is relatively ups and downs, so the future teaching staff construction is a very important work. The future demand of school numbers will be continuously increased, and strength the demand of the infrastructure construction is very important and urgent. The education demand of different district in Beijing is unfair and uneven. Just and reasonable allocation of educational resources is very important in the future.