The Research In Influence Factors Of Fertility Rate In China

With a strict one-child policy, China have had a great change of the fertility level in a short span of 30 years. China’s population reproduction types has achieved the change from the high birth rate, low death rate and high natural growth rate to the low birth rate, low mortality rate and low natural growth rate. The family planning policy is an important factor of demographic transition in China, but also we cannot ignore social and economic factors on the important role of the demographic transition in China. At present, China’s population is facing not only the low fertility level, but also the pressure of population aging intensifies, which had a negative effect on our country’s economic and social development. From the end of 2013, China’s population policy is implemented from the "double alone two children" to "in" separate two children". But it has little effect. Studying the main factors influencing the fertility level in our country, exploring the family planning policy, and other social economic factors on the specific role of fertility level in China, thus putting forward some policy suggestions, is the key point of this study.This article is based on theoretical and empirical studies about fertility changes at home and abroad. Using the time series data of the whole nation, and the provincial panel data to analyze concretely. For the processing of the data, we choose the total fertility rate as the dependent variable and choose the per capita gross national product, total dependency ratio, the urbanization level as independent variable, using the VECM model to estimate the impact on the total fertility rate, especially the policy of how dynamic influence factors on the total fertility rate. For the provincial data processing, the choice of 2006-2013 data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions), panel data regression analysis is established. The birth rate is chosen as the explained variable, and the variable is including the average education years, old-age security level, housing average selling prices, family per capita disposable income and total dependency ratio, average annual consumer spending life variables.Through regression analysis we found that the increase of the level of economic development and the increase of household income in the short term will improve the fertility rate, and the increase of per capita consumption points out and the improvement of housing prices and other factors can make fertility rates falling. In order to make the fertility rate increase in our country, we can develop the economy to maintain the high speed development of economy, increase the share of redistribution, and control the price of commodities and house prices to decrease the cost of people’s life and so on. But in the long run, with the raising the level of economic development and the development of other social and economic factors, it leads to the decline in fertility. This is the law of population change and the progress of social development. So it is with and the experience of population development in the European and American developed countries and many Asian countries. So hope to improve the fertility rate to ensure that economic development is not desirable. Change the way of China’s economic development, and strengthen the improvement of human capital is a better solution.