A Study On The Influence Of Chinese Economic-Social Factors On The Fertility Level In The 1990s

With the development of our country's economy, the progress of the society, and the well-ordered implement of the population and the Planning Child Bearing career as well as the gradual change of people's bearing notion, Chinese fertility rate fulfilled the transition in the dimensionality of the number and reached the replacement level in the beginning of the 1990s.However, compared with most of the country in the world, Chinese fertility transition is fulfilled in the influence of the economic-social factors and the bearing-controlled factors. Furthermore, the bearing-controlled factors' exerting its influence on the fertility is in the promotion of the economic-social factors. The economic-social factors not only have direct influences, but also have indirect influences on the fertility by affecting the bearing-controlled factors, as is the complexity of the question analysis. As far as our whole country is concerned, in the view of time series, the influence of the economic-social factors on the fertility has obvious phase character. Moreover, each province develops unbalanced in its social economy and the difference of its fertility is rather obvious. However, we must pay attention that each province has different transition beginning, declining speed and extent as far as its fertility level is concerned, as is the dynamic relativity of the influence on the fertility level by the economic-social factors.The relative complexity and the dynamic relativity as well as the objective hysteresis of the economic-social factors' influence on the fertility level determine the particularity of the research method and the diversity of the analysis index. We must demonstrate the question based on the planar visual angle of the change by time and the difference by space of Chinese fertility level. There are some theoretical and practical significance to roundly strengthen the population and planning child bearing work, stabilize the low fertility level and systemically solve the population questions in the visual angle to study the influence of Chinese economical-social factors on the fertility in the 1990s in the phrase of controlling or from controlling to stabilizing.Considering the Total Fertility Rate doesn't influenced by the age structure of the reproductive aged women, this paper firstly decomposes the General Fertility Rate of the national forth census and the national fifth census, summarizes and evaluates the relative literature, brings out some suppositions. This paper finds by the factor analysis that the decline of the Age Special Fertility Rate of the reproductive aged women, rather the change of their age structure is the primary reason for the fertility level decline. The age structure is a demographic attribute, while the bearing of the reproductive aged women is not only a kind of demographic behavior but also an economic-social behavior. It must be restricted by the economic-social factors. So this paper actually analyzes the economic-social factors' influences on the Age Special Fertility Rate of the reproductive aged women through affecting people's bearing notion, analyzes the economic-social factors' influences on the economic-social behavior of the reproductive aged women which is beyond the demographic factor.According to the fertility transition theory and the practice of Chinese fertility transition, this paper selects six economic-social development indexes and three bearing-controlled indexes, constructs the influence factor analysis frame by filtrating the "Damming Effect" of the bearing variables. Considering the obtainment of the data and the feasibility of analysis, this paper picks-up the economic-social factors data of twenty nine provinces in 1990, 1995 and 2000, the bearing-controlled factor indexes in 1990 and 2000. The Exploratory Factor Analysis eliminates the multi-collinearrity among the economic-social factors and the bearing-controlled factors, synthesizes the relative economic-social index and bearing-controlled index by data reduction. According to the data's "Refurbish Effect" by time and "Time-lag Effect", this paper respectively supposes the immediate effect, five-year-lagged effect and ten-year-lagged effect of the influence on the fertility level by the economic-social factors. According to the recursive causality among the economic-social index and bearing-controlled index as well as the fertility level, this paper uses the Multi Linear Regression Analysis, adopts the one-way recursive causality multi-factors synthetical path analysis to elicit the direct influence of the economic-social factors and the indirect influence of the economic-social factors through the bearing-controlled factors. The total influence is the sum of the direct influence and the indirect influence. By comparing the total influence of the economic-social factors and the bearing-controlled factors, this paper makes out the primary effect factor of the fertility level. In the beginning of the 1990s, the influence of the economic-social factors is appreciably bigger than that of the bearing-controlled factors and the economic-social factor is the main factor that affects Chinese fertility level. In the end of the 1990s, the influence of the economic-social factors further boosts up, which is much bigger than that of the bearing-controlled factors. The economic-social factor is worthy of the name becomes the primary affecting factor of the fertility level, while the bearing-controlled factor apparently emergences the tendency of "marginal utility step-down" as a system and policy factor.There are many factors that affect Chinese fertility level, and there are obvious multi-collinearrity exists among them. Every idiographic economic-social factor and bearing-controlled factor compose a Structural Equation Modeling when analyzing their influence (here, it refers to the indirect influence) on the fertility level. Based on the idea of the path analysis and using the Amos analysis method, this paper analyzes the single-factor Structural Equation Modeling of Chinese fertility level in the 1990s and concludes that the index such as the "GDP per capita", the "yearly per capita net income of the farmer family" and the "proportion of the practitioners in the industry and tertiary" as well as the "number of the educatee that has junior school learning and upwards in every ten thousand people" exert important influence on the fertility level all the time. Moreover, the indirect influence of the index such as the "GDP per capita", the "yearly per capita net income of the farmer family" and the "proportion of the practitioner in the industry and tertiary" is bigger and bigger. So the economic-social requirements to stabilize the low fertility level, systemically solve the population questions and the economic-social requirement to wholly construct the over-welled society and the harmonious society happen to have the same view.We must advert that most of the people especially the farmer's bearing notion still haven't changed, and the hard-won low fertility level rebounds fairly easy. On the other hand, the fertility-elasticity coefficients of all the bearing-controlled factors are higher than that of the economic-social factors. Once the bearing-controlled factors are strengthened, it will get effect instantly and greatly. So this paper brings out the fertility decision theory based on synthetical factors by demonstration studies on the influences on the fertility by the economic-social factors and the bearing-controlled factors as well as the intrinsic logistic relation between them, that is, the theory of "Economic-social Development and Contraception under the Bearing-controlled".Some region's fertility level may be high while its economic-social development level is also high in certain phase, certain area or certain extent, but the fertility of different province or municipality is ultimately determined by their economic-social development. The phenomenon of the fertility level's transcending or lagging the economic-social development level is the supplement and perfectness to the theory of "Economic-social Development and Contraception under the Bearing-controlled", which is substantiated by analyzing Guangdong's high fertility level against its well and quick economic-social development. This theory can not only explain generic bearing phenomenon, but also can demonstrate special bearing case, so it's a time and practice bearable theory.The bearing-controlled factor doesn't function in vacuum. As far as its function on the fertility level is concerned, it is ultimately determined by the economic-social factor. We must well and fast grasp the practice of Planning Child Bearing on the base of fulfilling the economy's well and quick development to stabilize the low fertility level and systemically solve the population questions. In the direction of the theory of "Economic-social Development and Contraception under the Bearing-controlled", one of the approaches to inosculate the economic behalves with the practice of Planning Child Bearing is to establish the Planning Child Bearing behalf oriented system. By the Oriented game on the Planning Child Bearing benefits analysis, in order to regulate the population and spur people to transfer their notion as well as stabilize the low fertility level according to the acquirement of scientific development view and constructing the harmonious society, the government could use the "Reinforcement Theory" and the "Dual Factor Theory" in management psychology for reference, establish and optimize the "Positive and Negative Reinforcement" Planning Child Bearing behalf oriented system, encouragement and punishment is consistent but give priority to encouragement, or establish and optimize the "Dual Factor" Planning Child Bearing behalf oriented system, prompting and substance is consistent but give priority to prompting, or synthesize these two kinds of behalf oriented system.Finally, this paper summarizes some important conclusions and evaluates objectively, brings out some topics that need to be further studied in the aspects of city and country, the parity, microcosmic community, moderate fertility level and classifiably directing the practice of the Planning Child Bearing as well as adjusting the bearing policy to local conditions and so on.