Analyze The Effect Of Chinese Fertility Policy With Economic Method

The actively-limit fertility policy had alleviated greatly the population pressure of our country over years, meanwhile, the policy result in a certain degree of imbalance of the population structure, in this background, our government made a significant adjustment to the birth policy and formulated and implemented successively two-child policys. From the actual situation, the selective two-child policy had not got a very good effect and the retaliatory fertility did not happen, the effect of unconditional two-child policy which just implement remain to be tested in practice, although many people hold the optimistic attitude, but the fertility behavior has its own logic and the design of policy is difficult to perfect, the possibility of the deviation between the effect of policy and its expectation makes it more impendency to analyze both.On the basis of the analysis of census data, the paper figured out the characteristics of the condition of population in our country is weak-growth and imbalance-structure, meanwhile, deduced that the number of population will decrease rapidly and Population Aging get more serious is the development trend of the population of our country, under the premise, the paper sorted transition of historical context of the fertility policy in our country after established and divided it into three stages:free (1949-1959)、limit negatively (1960-1979)、limit actively (1980-2013), and define now a turn stage. After clear the turn of fertility policy in our country, from a micro perspective, the paper analyzed the fertility behavior with economic method especially analyze the cost of fertility behavior with No-difference-analysis-method, on the basis, the paper made an explanation on how a fertility policy work, then, built model to analyze the scope of the fertility policys, and then, analyze the effect of them, finally, summarize the factors which affect the effect of fertility policy and deduced that two-child policys and free fertility will not improve the fertility rate inevitably. In the end, propose some opinion about how to attain the goal of fertility policy.