Effects Of Regional Ageing Population Fertility Rates

At present,China's population structure is becoming more and more serious China's population structure has entered the stage of "getting rich first and getting old." In May 2016,General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "The population issue has always been a global.For a long time to come,the basic national conditions of our country's populous country will not be fundamentally changed.The basic state policy of family planning must be sustained for a long time." However,what kind of family planning policy will be adopted will enable China to maintain the demographic dividend,effectively deal with the aging population and adjust the population structure.In order to cope with the aging population,the population structure is regulated,China has made three adjustments in its population policy in the 21 st century.From the present situation,neither the policy of "two children and two children" nor the policy of "solitary two children" achieved any significant results.Population in China are widely distributed,uneven distribution of population density,land area,different social and economic development level,the vast residents' fertility concept of regional difference is larger,the aging process of different regions of difference is different,so the factors that affect regional fertility is very complex,the effect of family planning policies are obviously different due to the geographical location differences.Therefore,this article argues that the "comprehensive two-child" policy implemented at present may not be applicable to policies that have different national and family planning policies and that they can not be treated differently depending on the impact of aging on childbearing.In other words,different family planning policies can be formulated for different regions to better adjust the population structure and solve the population problem in China.In this paper,we take the county of China as the research object,and use the geoweighted regression model(GWR)to study the effect of the regional aging on the fertility rate in 2803 districts and counties.According to different family planning policies in different regions,Help to alleviate the contradiction between China's population structure and ensure that the proportion of China's population structure is within a reasonable range.First,the hypothesis of the effect of the aging rate on the fertility rate is proposed.Second,The hypothesis of the relationship between empirical aging rate and fertility rate,and the robustness test,on the basis of GWR study of each county's aging rate of fertility impact elasticity,and then,based on the elasticity will be divided into 2,803 counties Three groups.Finally,draw conclusions and put forward corresponding fertility policy for each group.(1)Southeast coastal areas,Sichuan-Chongqing region,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Liaodong Peninsula and northwestern Xinjiang.Its high rate of aging,low birth rate,aging on the elasticity of fertility significantly.A completely liberal family planning policy should be adopted that will not limit the number of births and provide a series of encouraging birth policies to improve the fertility rate and repair the population structure.(2)The three northeast provinces,Yunnan,Guizhou,Guangxi,Hunan,Jiangxi,Shandong and Henan regions.The rate of aging is between 8 and 12,with a low birth rate.The aging rate has a central effect on the elasticity of fertility.We should adhere to the current policy of "comprehensive two-child" policy to ensure the effectiveness of the policy and provide appropriate incentives to improve the fertility rate to improve the population structure.(3)Guizhou,Guangxi,Anhui.The rate of aging is lower,Its aging rate is low,and aging has little effect on the elasticity of fertility.The "one-child" policy should be adhered to and a family should have one child.To control the population,ensure the quality of the population.