Resarch On The Influence Of Industrial Structure And Human Capital On Total Factor Productivity

As the new century comes,China's economy has developed rapidly,but the financial crisis in 2008 has hit the economies of all countries,including China,hard China's economic development has slowed down and entered the "new normal" phase of three phases of superposition.It is necessary to deal with the impact of fading demographic dividend and the challenge of diminishing marginal returns of material capital.Therefore,the 19th report in 2017 explicitly raised the requirement of improving total factor productivity(TFP)to promote high-quality economic development.According to the research on its influencing factors by scholars,industrial structure and human capital are the two key factors,and there are interactions between the two.However,there are few in-depth discussions on the integration of the two into the same research in the existing literatureIn view of this,this paper integrates industrial structure and human capital into the same system,and uses panel data of 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2017 to study the impact of the two on total factor productivity.Firstly,the effective labor after per capita education is used as the labor input index,and the DEA-Malmquist index method is used to measure the total factor productivity of each province.Secondly,using the real human capital stock per capita calculated based on the life-long income method,this paper analyzes the adjustment effect and threshold effect of human capital in the process of industrial structure's influence on total factor productivity through different fixed panel models,and makes heterogeneity analysis on the three regions.Finally,replace human capital index for robustness testThe study found that during the investigation period:1.The trend of TFP index under different treatment methods was basically unchanged,and the value decreased after considering the heterogeneity of labor force.The average annual growth rate is 0.2%when labor heterogeneity is not considered,and 0.1%when labor heterogeneity is not considered.Second,the upgrading of industrial structure and the upgrading of human capital stock are both significant factors to improve TFP,and the impact of industrial structure on TFP is positively regulated by the level of human capital stock to some extent,with the western region having the largest regulating effect coefficient and the central and eastern regions having slightly smaller coefficients.Third,the industrial structure shows the "threshold" effect characteristic based on human capital.When it is lower than the third threshold,the higher the level of human capital stock,the greater the positive impact of industrial structure on TFP,and it falls back after it is higher than the third thresholdAccording to the above research conclusions,three policy suggestions are put forward:first,increase the investment in human capital to promote the upgrading of industrial structure with the improvement of the stock level of human capital;Second,consider the dynamic matching between human capital and industrial structure,adjust industrial policies according to changes in human capital level,and at the same time promote the transformation of human capital structure to advanced level through industrial structure adjustment.Third,pay attention to the differences in regional human capital level and industrial structure,and formulate industrial policies that conform to regional characteristics.